A Russian-Chinese agreement to study the moon puts pressure on Moscow’s growth from the US

Let’s say it’s lunar politics.

This week Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, signed an agreement with China’s National Space Administration, to create an International Lunar Scientific Station “with open access to the countries of interest and international partners.” The most impressive sign yet was that Moscow sees its future with China and not with the United States, further emphasizing the strategic alignment that exists. growing up with Beijing.

That follows a quarter of a year of space cooperation between the U.S. and Russia, launched by those who dreamed of a post-Cold War settlement between Moscow and Washington. The construction and operation of the International Space Station was the highlight.

This week’s agreement also marked a seeming reiteration of NASA’s invitation for Russia to join the Artemis project, named for Apollo’s twin sister, which is aimed at the first and next wives. placed on the moon by 2024. With international partners, Artemis would also be exploring the lunar surface deeper than ever, using advanced technologies.

“They see that their program is not as international, but like NATO,” shouted Dmitry Rogozin last year, the chief executive of Roscosmos, who had previously made a lot of courtship in Brussels as Russia’s deputy ambassador to Russia. NATO. “We are not interested in participating in a project like this.”

Rather than dwell on what all this means for a future place, it is perhaps more important for Biden’s administration to reflect on how this latest news should be on introducing them to Putin’s emerging approach in Russia.

President Biden has no comments about Putin, indicating he will intervene when he decides he is in the best interests of the U.S. and sanctions when necessary. His first foreign policy benefit was a contract with Putin to hold the new Strategic Weapon Restriction Talks that President Trump had abandoned.

That said, Biden also imposed new sanctions on Russia, in conjunction with the European Union, following poisoning and then imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. It remains to be seen how the Biden administration will work on new or existing U.S. sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the most active case currently being played that divides the EU and even German politics.

Whichever course Biden chooses, it would be wise not to exacerbate the mistakes of previous administrations because of a misunderstanding of Russia’s decline or an overly single focus on Beijing.

“Putin is not consuming the same power that his Soviet ancestors did in the 1970s or that Chinese President Xi Jinping is doing today,” Michael McFaul, the US ambassador to Moscow, wrote to President Obama. , in Foreign Affairs. “But Russia was not the weak and broken state of the 1990s. It has reappeared, despite negative demographic movements and backward market reforms, as one of the most powerful countries in the world. world – with much more military, cyber, economic, and ideological potential that most Americans have. ”

McFaul notes that Russia has upgraded its nuclear weapons, although the US has not, and has made a major overhaul of the conventional weapons. Russia has the 11th^ththe largest economy in the world, with a larger GDP per capita than China.

“Putin has also made major investments in space weapons, intelligence, and cyber capabilities, before the United States learned the hard way,” McFaul wrote, referring to the major cyberattacks that have emerged more. earlier this year after entering many parts of the US. government and thousands of other organizations.

At the same time, Putin appears less restrained in his aggression against domestic opponents, in opposition to Western powers, and seemingly willing to take risks to achieve a dual cause. realization: renewing Russia’s standing and influence and reducing that to the United States.

Henry Foy, head of the Moscow Financial Times bureau, will this weekend make a strong statement on today’s Russia under the headline, “Vladimir Putin’s third brutal act.”

Foy writes: “After 20 years in which Putin ‘s rule was first expressed by economic wealth, and then by pugnacious patriotism, his government has now pushed into a key tool for power. to keep. “

The world has seen that graphically in the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader, and then his arrest when he returned to Russia after recovering in a German hospital. Foy also reports on the “passing of laws” that passed at the end of last year which has put pressure on former and future opponents. The latest move came today (Saturday) when Russian authorities arrested 200 local politicians, including some of the highest opposition figures, at a protest in Moscow.

Some see Putin’s growing ruthlessness of the most widespread and controversial arrest, amidst the size and breadth of Navalny-backed protests, as an indication of Putin’s vulnerability.

But others see what he has done since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 up to the latest cyberattacks, as a testament to his greater capabilities. They warn of more violent actions ahead.

Both views are correct – Butin is more vulnerable and capable at the same time. His harassment at home and proven abroad are two sides of the same man.

So what do you do about it?

The Atlantic Council, the body where I will serve as president and CEO, received an unusual public dust of staff voices this week over what is the right course for Putin ‘s deal with Russia.

The arguments focused on the obvious role that human rights concerns should play in shaping U.S. policy toward Moscow.

Wherever one comes down on that issue, what is hard to dispute is that Russia’s growing strategic connection with China, confirmed by the lunar agreement of the this week, just amid a growing mountain of evidence that the Western approach to Moscow over the past 20 years has not provided the desired results.

What is urgently needed is the Biden administration’s review of Russia’s strategy which begins with the recognition that misunderstandings about Russia’s decline have clouded the need for a more proactive approach. intellectual.

This should be one that would combine more engaging elements of communication with more educated forms of restraint with partners. It requires patience and partners.

What is needed is a strategic context for monitoring Russia’s actions and policies: new or existing economic sanctions against Russia, a possible response to the cyberattacks latest, more effective ways to combat deconstruction, and a more creative response to a growing Sino-Russian strategy. collaboration.

Too much response is never a good policy, but Russia’s disrespect, at this point, is a far greater threat.

The long-term goal should be as NASA had hoped 25 years ago – reconciliation and cooperation between the US and Russia. Then put that in the context of a totally free and relaxed Europe, where Russia is finding its rightful place, the dream that President George HW Bush just asserted months before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Whatever Putin wants, it’s hard to believe that the Russians would not have preferred this outcome even as a Sino – Russian moon landing.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, award-winning journalist and president & CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the most influential think tanks in the United States on global issues. He worked for The Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as a foreign journalist, regulatory editor and as the longest-serving editor in the European edition of the paper. His latest book – “Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth” – was a favorite of the New York Times bestseller and was published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter @FredKempe and subscribe here to Inflection Points, his look every Saturday on the main stories and trends of the past week.

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