Top British scientists have warned that a lack of long-term planning in the battle against Covid is leaving the country vulnerable to a major outbreak of the disease for at least another year.
Distributing vaccines that are currently underway would cut into hospitals and deaths among the elderly and vulnerable, they said, but would still leave many others at risk. be infected and suffer from the long-term effects of the disease.
Even though millions of doses of vaccine are being given, a real outbreak of Covid-19 is likely to continue through the year and into the next year. These issues should now be the focus of careful planning, the scientists warned.
“Getting 20 million people on the vaccine is likely to reduce the number of cases but we should not forget that this is a communicable virus and if we do not continue with social measures, it will getting around communities again and causing damage, ”said Liam Smeeth, professor of clinical epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
“I understand the short-term panic that is going on at the moment as hospital issues are rising so fast but I am appalled by the lack of a long-term strategy. there to deal with Covid, ”he told the Spectator. “I don’t see any signs that I’m thinking about. ”
Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, supported this view. “This illness would have spread differently and in a much happier way if we had accepted, back in February, that we were here for the long haul,” he said. “However, it was seen as a short-term problem.
“It was thought that we could eradicate the virus completely, which is why we are in the situation we are in now.”
The idea that the virus could be eradicated was a costly mistake, said Martin Hibberd from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “We need to understand that Covid-19 is going to become endemic. The virus will not disappear. We are not going to eliminate it. Even if everyone on Earth was vaccinated, we would still be in danger of it returning. ”
Several other issues remain to be resolved, Hibberd added. These include concerns about the length of time vaccines provide protection and how new changes may prevent immunization protection. “We may be lucky and discover that the virus does not change much and that vaccine coverage is not affected, causing the virus level to drop to a low level,” Hibberd said.
“However, changing the coat may cause the virus as well as the flu. In that case, we have to make new vaccines and distribute them every year. We should think about that problem now. “
The prospect of a ban for several months was also raised by Anne Johnson, an epidemiologist at University College London. “In March, we are still going to be subject to restrictions that need to be put in place for months after that. What happens in the autumn will depend on our success in keeping the virus down in the summer, ”she said.
“We also need to study the amount of virus in the community and work out the levels of antibody caused by natural diseases and vaccines. These are going to be very important in determining the spread of the virus next winter. ”
Smeeth argued that social pace measures could continue until next winter and warned of the dangers of new mutations circumventing vaccine protection. “Sadly, I feel we are a long way from being out of this illness,” he said. “It is possible that the virus could go unharmed tomorrow. That is not entirely naive hope.
“However, so far we have found that changes have made it more contagious and that is something we should be prepared to deal with – although I do not see a lot of that happens. ”