A senior health expert said Sunday that as Israel continues to reopen its economy, a new rise in coronavirus infections is expected in March, but the new virus wave is likely to cause less severe cases. dona.
Israel began reopening the economy last week, with malls and shopping centers opening its gates to the public after months of closures. The economy is expected to open almost entirely by March 9, just two weeks before the election.
“Already in January, we said that March will see an increase in infections, but because of the vaccines, we will see less severe patients,” said Dr. Eran Segal, who developed the Weizmann Institute prediction model for coronavirus transmission in Israel. Ynet.
“This week has seen an increase in the number of virus (R) infections, coupled with a decline in new adverse patients – a fall of around 20%. There are now around 750 patients. We believe that this decline will continue in the near future. “
Segal said Israel is in the middle of the “vaccination age” and should be taken into account when making any estimates.
He also noted that a report by the IDF Intelligence Directorate showed that the vaccines are 88% effective in detecting the spread of infection, but efficacy was only recorded while policy was mandatory. of mask wear and social distance still in place.
“If we see any significant change in public compliance with restrictions, there is a risk that we will lose this effectiveness,” he warned.
Segal said that as a result of the continuing decline in new cases and with the majority of the population over 16 receiving at least one dose of the vaccine, the country ‘s herd immunity is improving day by day. He said the plans to continue reopening the economy should remain as they are.
“It is possible that the vaccines are able to offset the increase in the R number as a result of the reopening of the economy,” he said. and now it’s completely reversed – more than 70% of patients in the hospital are under 60. ”
He also stressed the need to build immunity among the younger population.
Segal, however, said the number R in the Arab region is 1.12 – higher than the same figure in the general population.
“Over the past week we have seen a small increase in bad cases in the Arab community,” he said, noting that one of the reasons is low turnout. in the department.
Segal said that move could, if it continues, threaten any reopening within the region.