A new virus variant can be a little more deadly, the UK warns

London – Prime Minister Boris Johnson was expected to trumpet rarely in the campaign against the coronation on Friday: news that Britain had vaccinated 5.4 million people. By the end of the day, he was taken over by an inconclusive discovery that a new variant of the virus could be more lethal than the original one.

That potential, built on preclinical reliance on small numbers of deaths in acute hospitals, remains far from certain. But the expectation is that the new rapidly spreading variant, which is already known to be more contagious, could also be more frighteningly lethal if the pandemic remains a major threat for some time.

Government scientists said early evidence suggests the new variant, first discovered last year in Britain, could raise the risk of death by around 30%. But even with such an increase, most cases are not fatal, and government estimates included a wide range of potential side effects.

“As well as spreading faster,” Johnson said at a press conference on Downing Street, “it now appears that there is little evidence that the new variant – the variant that was highlighted in the first in London and the South East – to be associated with a higher mortality rate. “

The underlying evidence, outlined in a report published on Friday by the government’s scientific committee, was less convincing than the prime minister, saying only that there was “reasonable potential” for the new variant to be more lethal and explains several inevitable limitations in the data.

“I want to emphasize that there is a lot of uncertainty about these numbers and we need more work to get a hands on it, but it is clearly worrying that there is an increase in mortality as well as an increase. the referral, “said the government ‘s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance.

For Johnson, who has been struggling to find a money line as Britain ‘s response to the virus, this was not the first time that good news and bad news went hand in hand. On December. 30, the government announced a rural vaccination license, developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca, just to put much of the country in a harder lockdown hours later because of a surgeon in diseases.

Britain’s fight with the pandemic has been a race between the public vaccine and resistance to mutation in the virus, as the new variant now makes up a large percentage of new cases across the country. It is a fierce battle that scientists say awakens hope as well as anxiety.

“2021 is going to be a cat-and-mouse game to see if we can quickly vaccinate people to stay ahead of the variables,” said Devi Sridhar, director of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh.

External experts said the early claims of higher deaths had not long been resolved.

For one, the studies were based on a small subset – about 8% – of total deaths in Britain, raising the possibility that the results may not “therefore be representative of the total population,” the report said.

For another, less than 3% of known diseases in Britain have been fatal, so the impact of the new change on mortality would be measured in very small numbers, making it more difficult to be certain. .

In addition, the indications of higher mortality rates contradicted evidence that people with the new variant were less likely to be hospitalized than those infected with established patients. better.

Beyond that, scientists said it was difficult to determine with certainty whether it was fatal to any number of causal factors – such as hospitals being overcrowded or otherwise potentially more aggressive. their settings as nursing homes.

“We need more information before we jump to firm conclusions,” said Lawrence Young, a pathologist at Warwick School of Medicine.

Ian Jones, a professor of virology at the University of Reading, noted that the report was “a pain to emphasize the limited data and initial conclusions.” However, he said, “the mortality rate of a case is certainly possible with a virus that has spread its game in spread.”

The scientific studies relied on by the government have not been fully published, and have outlined a wide range of possible effects of the new change on mortality rates.

The report confirmed that “the overall risk of death for all diseases remains low.” And regardless of the death rate, scientists said the best response to the new variant had not changed: locks, face cover and vaccines.

Britain had taken in more than 400,000 people in the previous 24 hours, keeping it on track to meet Johnson’s goal of 15 million vulnerable people, nearly a quarter of the population, before mid-February. On a per capita basis, only Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have done more. The United States and China have delivered more doses than Britain but to a smaller percentage of their numbers.

Vallance said there was no evidence that the vaccines being used were ineffective against the variant first identified in Britain. But he expressed less certainty as to whether they offered similar protection against changes coming from South Africa and Brazil.

The warnings about the variance captured the political crossovers that Johnson has played in responding to the pandemic. A quick release of the vaccine may force Conservative Party members to renew their calls to start closing the lock. But scientists warn that full-blown mitigation, even after extensive vaccinations, could trigger a new surge of disease.

The Labor Party at the same time criticized Johnson for adding another unexpected surprise to the British people.

“This is terrible news, especially as Boris Johnson reassured the country back in December that there was no evidence that the variant was more dangerous,” said Jonathan Ashworth, Labour’s shadow health secretary. , in a statement.

Johnson presented the news as evidence of his commitment to presenting changing scientific evidence to the public. He also urged people to adhere to social distance rules even as the vaccines promised a brighter future.

The warnings about the opposite – first published by prominent epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, in a statement on Friday to a well – connected television correspondent, Robert Peston – blamed the Prime Minister for that warning message.

“We cannot begin to consider a solution until we are confident that the vaccination program is working,” Johnson said. “We need to bring those disease levels down.”

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