Posting a package of SARS-CoV-2 tests to every household in America and asking people to use them once a week could significantly reduce overall disease and mortality at a reasonable cost, discovered a new study led by Yale School of Public Health.
The research, published today in History of internal treatments, considering rapid antigen testing that warns people, in real time, that they may be infectious and that they should separate themselves before spreading the disease to others unknowingly.
Researchers, led by Professor A. David Paltiel, collected data on the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 and the natural history of COVID-19. They then used a mathematical model to estimate the number of preventable diseases, hospitals, and deaths – and at what cost – by giving families the technology to identify themselves. and separate themselves before accepting others.
Home-based antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 combined with self-inflicted isolation for those with a positive outcome did not receive the attention it deserves in support of social and immunosuppressive remission for induction the pandemic. “
A. David Paltiel, Professor, Yale University
Critics have argued that home testing suffers from poor acceptance, incomplete compliance, frequent false-negative results (leading to unfounded restlessness) and often false-positive results ( leading to unnecessary loneliness and lost work output).
“We have gone to great lengths to address these concerns, following in the footsteps of the blades to turn the analysis against our own conclusions and deliberately demonstrating the strategy in the light of is very unfavorable, “said study co – author Paul D. Sax, of Brigham and Women ‘s Hospital and Harvard Medical School.
For example, the researchers assumed that as many as 75% of households would choose to discard the package without opening it, up to 75% of people would avoid a positive outcome , and that less than 25% of those who chose it would be self-employed doing so for a full week, as suggested. “We made equally optimistic assumptions about the costs and accuracy of the tests. And yet we found that it would provide exceptional value,” Sax said.
The study found that, over a 60-day period, a weekly trial would prevent 2.8 million infections and 15,700 deaths in the United States at an increased cost of about $ 68 per person. This figure includes $ 38 for testing, $ 32 in additional workday productivity loss, and $ 2 in hospital patient savings. This is calculated to a cost-effectiveness ratio of $ 1.43 million per death avoided.
The researchers also noted that one intervention will not be enough for the pandemic, adding that their analysis highlights the importance of high-frequency testing in support. to social distance, vaccination and other mitigation strategies.
“Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good,” Paltiel said. “Home-based antigen testing could save millions of diseases and thousands of lives at a reasonable cost.”
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Magazine Reference:
Paltiel, AD, et al. (2021) Clinical and Economic Impacts of Extensive Rapid Testing to Reduce SARS-CoV-2 Reduction. History of internal treatments. doi.