NHS waiting lists could be over ten million by April – with one in six people in England in need of treatment, a report warns.
Researchers claim that the pandemic turned the NHS into a ‘National Covid Service’, with six million fewer referrals in 2020 than 2019.
Health workers are now forced to rise from pent-up demand when locking loops are reduced in the coming weeks.
The waiting list could rise from 4.52million at the end of December to tens of millions by April, modeled by Reform think tank and data analytics firm Edge Health recommends.
An increase in demand after the NHS waiting list lockout could rise from 4.52million at the end of December to tenmillion by April, research suggests. Pictured: An ambulance queue outside the Royal London Hospital in January






The number waiting on the list for more than a year is expected to be 12,000 percent higher by April than in March last year.
Health charities and the Royal College of Surgeons last night warned that patients against the ‘gloomy reality’ of long waits for ‘years to come’.
Patients delayed seeking care because they heeded the Government’s calls to ‘stay at home, protect the NHS’ or were afraid of catching the virus at their GP surgery or hospital.
At the same time, the NHS delayed some non-emergency operations to free staff and beds for Covid cases.
Experts fear that some people may see their condition deteriorate to a point where it can no longer be treated effectively, leading to death or permanent disability.
It includes those with cancer, heart disease and mental health issues. The delay could result in an additional 1,660 lung cancer deaths, the What Next For The NHS report claims.
The NHS worked hard to resume services over the summer but had to suspend some non-emergency care over the winter as it struggled to cope. another wave.
The delay has led to an increase in people waiting more than a year for treatment, with a year or more waiting already up 7,139 per cent from December, the most recent month for which data is available.
Patients should be seen within 18 weeks of being sent to hospital for treatment.
Researchers describe their estimates as ‘conservative’ as they do not describe methods that were discontinued this month and last year.
Eleonora Harwich, director of research at Reform and co-author, said: ‘We can never be the equivalent of a “National Covid Service” again. This is a systemic problem and does not detract from the heroic effort of NHS staff fighting Covid-19.
However, stopping so much non-Covid care means that patients suffer from more serious illnesses or health disabilities, and some die prematurely. ‘

Pictured: a queue of people outside the Patient Department at Basildon and Thurrock hospital in southwest Essex, east of England, on January 1, 2021



Reform is concerned that the NHS did not properly use private providers to deliver non-Covid care while fighting the pandemic. They are now urging NHS England to force Trusts to publish their ‘waiting list recovery plans’, which set out how the capacity of the independent sector will be harnessed.
Those who do not make full use of this additional capacity or resources such as MRI devices to reduce the care background are ‘negligent’, the fingerprint says.
He wants the NHS to open community screening centers for cancer, heart disease and other illnesses.
Those most in need of care should be identified and prioritized, he adds. The think tank is concerned that the Health and Social Care White Paper presented by the Health Secretary last week does not address the balloon waiting list or the need to increase capacity.
Rachel Power, chief executive of the Patients’ Association, said: ‘The hard reality facing patients is that waiting lists will be long for years to come.’
Professor Neil Mortensen, President of the Royal College of Surgeons, agreed that ‘major surgery’ could be as high as ten million.
Professor Stephen Powis, NHS national medical director, said: ‘The NHS has never been just a Covid service – for every Covid patient in hospital, the NHS treats three for other illnesses – and it is clearly a disadvantage to the work of our staff who have continued to run services throughout the pandemic to suggest otherwise. ‘