An imitation-based study conducted at the University of Miami, USA, has revealed that the general population’s vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) alone is not sufficient to control the entire disease. -dispersed, as the conventional strategies are available and implemented. To overcome the current level of infection of acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) syndrome, non-pharmacological control measures should be strictly followed in combination with major immunization programs. The study is currently available on the medRxiv* preprint server.
Background
The United States of America is among the worst hit countries by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the World Health Organization, of 104.8 million global SARS-CoV-2 infections and 2.28 million COVID-19-related deaths, the U.S. alone accounts for more than 26 million cases and more than 450,000 deaths . In addition, there is evidence to suggest that the pandemic has reduced the life expectancy of U.S. residents by more than a year, which is 10-times more severe than the decline seen during the illness. epidemic opioid.
In the early stages of COVID-19 pandemic disease, non-pharmacological control measures were considered the best way to prevent viral transmission. These measures typically include face-to-face wear, hand washing, social distance, restriction of movement, contact detection, and quarantine strategies. However, at a later stage of the pandemic, several vaccines are able to start in many countries, which raises hopes for a return to normal life amid the pandemic situation. In the U.S., the FDA has recently approved two COVID-19 vaccines for restricted and emergency use.
In the current study, the scientists have evaluated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine programs nationwide, public suitability for vaccines, and daily vaccine potential under two federal plans proposed by the former Trump administration and the Biden administration. In addition, they evaluated the association between non-pharmacological control measures and vaccines in the management of COVID-19 pandemic disease.
An overview of our modified COVASIM model containing the state diagram and specification of all movements, including key methods for vaccination and infection.
Study design
In the present study, the scientists performed large-scale individual simulations at an individual level by extending an open-label model of COVID-19 agent (COVASIM) with vaccine efficacy, efficacy, and public suitability. Using the model, they simulated the need for two doses of vaccine and the probability of infection before receiving the 2nd dose. They also examined whether there is a link between vaccine interventions and non-pharmacological interventions in the management of a pandemic situation.
Important comments
The comparison between two federal plans showed that the Biden plan (1 million vaccine doses / day) is more effective in controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection than the plan created by the former Trump administration. previously (“Operation Warp Speed”). According to the simulation data, the proposed vaccine regimens can significantly reduce the number of COVID-19 cases even if there is insufficient public willingness of vaccines and even if they have lower than expected efficacy. . Between vaccine efficacy and vaccine compliance / suitability, it has been observed that increasing vaccine efficacy can significantly reduce the level of infection and entry in the proportion of immunocompromised individuals in a given population, which is critical for achieving herd immunity. In contrast, predictions of vaccine uptake have shown more complex results.
In particular, the scientists believed that increased uptake of vaccines was associated with a lower disease rate. However, the simulation data largely showed return results for both vaccine plans, especially in situations with the lowest restrictions on non-pharmacological control measures. The scientists believe that because vaccination programs mostly plan the vaccination of older people with far fewer social interactions than the younger population, there is a real effect of vaccination in vaccinating older people. reduction of the viral spread was largely eliminated. Another reason for such return results is the availability of low-dose vaccines. In all cases, the risk of developing an infection increases with the youngest population until they become eligible for vaccination. This can lead to a complete entry in the level of infection in a given population.
Investigate meaning
The findings of the study show that while they are effective in reducing the level of infection, vaccination programs alone cannot control the spread pathway. In a situation where non-pharmacological control measures are largely fixed, it is difficult to achieve herd immunity only through vaccination. Similarly, in situations where there is no restriction on control measures, higher public compliance with vaccines leads to a higher incidence of disease, mainly due to the low availability of vaccines and / or priority on the elderly vaccine. Therefore, even with the progress of immunization programs, the implementation of non-pharmacological control measures should continue to restore normal life status among the pandemic.
* Important message
medRxiv publish preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be seen as final, guiding health-related clinical practice / behavior, or be treated as information established.