Circling the Earth 16 times a day 250 miles up, space stations are among the most impressive human achievements. The International Space Station (ISS) is a partnership between NASA and Russia’s Roscosmos, with donations on the American side from Canada, Japan, Europe and other countries. The future is far from clear, however, and depends on decisions made this year.
The U.S. bears about 75 percent of ISS costs at an annual cost of between $ 3 billion and $ 4 billion. Russia launched the first parts of ISS in 1998, and by 2010, ISS became fully operational. The plan for ISS was to last 15 to 20 years, and before it would be replaced. There was no such thing.
The ISS cost more than $ 150 billion, five times the budgets of NASA and Roscosmos, so it would be a daunting task, possibly choking funding for Earth observation, a human visit to the Moon or Mars or a deep space study. The “Artemis” response of the Trump administration was to move space stations orbiting the Earth from the government to the private sector and focus government spending instead on a lunar space station and the arrival of a human moon. With several countries already agreeing to invest in America’s lunar space station, it’s hard to see how those countries would also invest in a new $ 100 billion ISS. Therefore, if the Artemis program is not delayed, the financial burden of a new ISS would fall on the US
Extending the life of an ISS is made easier by its parts design, which allows the removal of worn parts, such as solar panels. Accordingly, NASA, Roscosmos and the international partners have agreed to continue working until 2028 (8 to 10 years beyond its lifetime) and possibly until 2030.
The ISS is already 20, and – at this age – we should be ready for a surprise: When a slow air leak was discovered, an astronaut first inserted it with his finger, and then put it on. fail. This is not the only time they have kept air at the station with tape, and it is very likely that this will be the last break by 2030, with nothing to say about the risk from debris accidents. If the ISS is to be replaced by 2030, start-up work should begin by 2021. If work does not begin on another by 2021, the chances of a comparable station in service by 2028/30 may be reduced. . But there is more.
The ISS is set to receive a major advertising boost: This year it is planned to record parts of two major films there. Universal Studios and NASA announced that a $ 200 million Tom Cruise thrush would be partially filmed inside the ISS, while Russian Channel One and Roscosmos announced that they would be filming one as well. Millions may be awakened by glamorous views aboard the ISS.
Although Roscosmos has agreed to continue with the ISS through 2028/30, he pointed out that if the US were to close America’s ISS sections, Russia would segregate Russia’s sections and use them as a separate Russian space station or participatory. No one in Russia has forgotten that the first Russian space stations or that Mir Space Station operated for 14 years before the ISS. There is still potential of a space station in Russia.
Strong opposition from U.S. defense interests has hampered space cooperation between the U.S. and China, leading to a 2011 law effectively banning it. Not surprisingly, China has pursued a space program without the involvement of the ISS. This includes satellites, lunar and planet missions and, starting in 2011, China’s own space stations, Tiangong 1 and 2. In 2021, China will begin construction of Tiangong 3, a multi-modal station that begin to look similar to the ISS. It should work in 2022, involving European astronauts and other astronauts, and work long after the ISS.
Assuming the U.S. does not build an ISS base, America’s main strategy will still be to replace the ISS with private space stations. Several American companies have already begun work, although most use the ISS as a base.
The main American business building its own station is Axiom Space, which subcontracts its launch to companies like Space X and builds models to Thales Alenia Corp. The “Axiom Station” will be a 3-module space station, initially connected to the previous ISS. separation at the end of the 2020s. Axiom’s plan is to use one model for operations, another for testing / manufacturing and the third as a luxury resort. Last year, NASA gave Axiom $ 140 million to help it build its first model. Axiom will host Universal Studios and Tom Cruise this year and will put 3 space tourists, who paid $ 55 million each, for a week aboard the ISS in 2022.
Other companies are more recent, including Sierra Nevada Corp., Nano Racks and Bigelow.
Among the most significant recent developments in U.S. space policy was the creation of the U.S. Space Force (USSF). One of his main goals is to protect America’s space assets, and it’s hard to imagine that the USSF leadership wouldn’t consider an armed space station. While NASA has been cooperating with the military and while the American military is among the largest owners of satellites, the U.S. military space station has not been proposed since the 1960s.
Last year, the Defense Innovation Unit awarded a contract to Sierra Nevada to build an unmanned Orbital Outpost that would host an armed team. The company used the proposed goods vehicle as a platform from which to build a military base. The first flight of the cargo vehicle to the ISS, connected to the Sierra Nevada space plane, is scheduled for 2021. This will clearly be the basis for the vehicle’s transition to an armed space station.
So this year construction will begin on a new Chinese space station and an American industrial space station; the Pentagon will begin the search for its first space station, and – perhaps – we will have more information about any future Russian space station. More importantly, the Biden administration will have decided whether there will be another one for the ISS, especially since – with the long lead times – 2021 is not a decision.
Roger Cochetti provides consulting and advisory services in Washington, DC He was chief executive of Satellite Communications Corporation (COMSAT) from 1981 through 1994. He also led internet public policy for IBM from 1994 through 2000 and the subsequently served as Senior Vice President & Chief Policy Officer. for VeriSign and Group Policy Director for CompTIA. He was a member of the State Department Advisory Committee on International Communication and Information Policy during the Bush and Obama administrations, has testified on internet policy issues several times and on advisory committees to the FTC and various UN agencies. He is the author of the Satellite Mobile Communications Manual.