News 12’s election pollster, Dr. Mano Geva, spoke tonight (Wednesday) with Ben Caspit, Aryeh Eldad and Roni Bar-On on 103FM, summarized the election broadcasts and addressed the differences between the samples and the truth results that have accumulated so far.
“It was mostly stressful because it was very complex. Because of the three factors of uncertainty that I recently mentioned at every opportunity – the turnout we did not know what would be because of Corona, indifference and fatigue, the parties on the verge of blocking and undecided votes. “The data from the Central Election Commission we stand at 67.2 percent. But it is not over yet, there are another 450,000 votes according to the Election Commission that it is worth another 11 seats,” Geva said.
“I try all the way to try to gamble and not predict. I do not know, but we can all try to judge by the populations included in the remaining seats. There are the elderly in nursing homes, who should have a very high turnout because they have access to the ballot box. “The central election has eighty tens of thousands of people, there are soldiers, there are disabled people and a few thousand of the sick and isolated,” he added.
When asked about the inaccuracy in the results among the sector tonight, Geva replied: “After the partnership split, it became very difficult to sample them, there is something to improve and we will think about it again. I reported a week in advance that RAAM is going through 4 percent. We received 11 seats from the Arab society, the change is at the expense of the common and it will not change the balance. We have an Arab department head in the sample who said “they are passing,” but I can in no way give a number that does not go out of my model. This is not a tool I can use even though all the indications said so. Even if I make a mistake – I must be true to my model and results. Even at the end of the broadcast, when I gave the results of the truth polls, I mentioned that “RAAM is really close to the blocking percentage.”
Geva was later asked about Bnei Gantz’s surprising result, contrary to the opinion that his results in the polls came as a result of the misleading of Likud voters: , It was kind of something that woke people up. It should be taken into account that some of the voting for these parties was strategic, and in such a vote no one knows how it will end. In the last poll I gave six seats to blue and white, I saw the trend clearly and was not surprised at all. I was not surprised, but I could not publish. “