After the polls predicted 61 seats and even more for the Netanyahu supporters’ bloc together with the right-wing party, the Likud woke up this morning (Wednesday) to a completely different scenario, after it became clear that the RAAM party is expected to enter the 24th Knesset. Only 52 seats, while the opposing bloc stands at 56. The right gets 7 seats and RAAM causes a surprise with no less than 5 seats, as stated.
Bennett and Smutrich’s statements about their opposition to a cabinet meeting in which Ra’am is a partner will make it very difficult for Netanyahu to form a government. In addition, the Likud also expressed a number of MKs, including Minister Eli Cohen, Deputy Health Minister Yoav Kish and MK Shlomo To the government. Therefore, the scenario in which a right-wing ultra-Orthodox government will be formed with the right and the RAAM is unrealistic.
Netanyahu has the option of trying to recruit two defectors in order to reach 61, but even that, it seems, is not a reasonable scenario. The person who referred to this this morning was No. 2 in the “New Hope” party, Zeev Elkin, who clarified: “Anyone who dreams of defecting and dividing us to forget about it, does not exist.”
On the other hand, the Netanyahu opposition bloc will also find it difficult to form a government in light of the right-wing opposition to cooperating with the Prime Minister and the joint list. Similarly, New Hope and Yisrael Beiteinu are also expected to oppose such a move. , Right (7), new hope (6), blue and white (8) Yisrael Beiteinu (7), Labor (7) and Meretz (5) yield only 57 seats.
We will do after the election exactly what we promised:
1. We will not enter the Netanyahu government no matter what position we are offered. If Netanyahu forms a government, he will oust the public from the opposition.
2. We will not participate in a government and a coalition based on the support of the joint list.
Every effort will be made to form a change government here and no ego will interfere.
4. There will be no defectors– Zeev Elkin (@zeev_elkin) March 24, 2021
However, in the event that the bloc opposing Netanyahu, along with the Arab parties, have more than 61 seats, Netanyahu may anticipate a nightmare scenario for him, under which the law prohibiting a defendant from serving as prime minister will be enacted.
In the event that no candidate succeeds in forming a government and the system remains in such a state for 21 days, pressure will be exerted on Netanyahu and the leaders of the “Bloc of Change” to form a national unity government and prevent a fifth election. In this scenario, the party leaders will face a dilemma: break their promise not to sit with Netanyahu and prevent a run for another election or lead the country to another election, in which a decision is also unlikely to be reached.