When looking at the political events of the past week, it is a bit difficult to decide what the priorities are. Commentators, for their part, have speculated whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s appearance in the Jerusalem District Court is the event, or whether the first place in the rating comes from the surplus agreement signed by the Likud with Smutrich and Ben Gvir. However, it is not inconceivable that for Netanyahu himself, another date specified last week is the most important of all. Sources found it difficult to report whether Balfour raised a glass in honor of the event and whether it was clear champagne or a different color, but in any case – February 10 deserves special attention.
Well, “Netanyahu’s government” as a concept celebrated a bat mitzvah this week. On February 10, 12 years ago, the elections to the 18th Knesset took place and led to Netanyahu returning to power from the political desert. Then, in 2009, Netanyahu taught the entire system a lesson on how to win elections even without winning seats. Although it took him a while, the government headed by him was sworn in only a month and 21 days later, right at the end of March, but the process was impressive and we should mention it in a few sentences.
Benjamin Netanyahu on Channel 20. Photo: Channel 20
The method that Netanyahu adopted in 2009, after studying, researching and internalizing the circumstances of his failure in his first term as prime minister in the 1990s, was the “giving everything to everyone” method. Gives, not just promises. Netanyahu – who ended the election with one seat less than what the then ruling ruling party, Kadima, led by Tzipi Livni, received – knew full well that he had to be extra-extra-large.
While Livni continued to hold on to the tallit of power and call it “all mine,” she tried to negotiate with Labor chairman Ehud Barak, and could not understand why nothing moved, Netanyahu closed his next coalition behind the scenes. With Barak, he reached agreements before the election. So Netanyahu could not yet afford to “promise, but not promise to keep.” He told Barak: “Ehud, my defense minister will be full-fledged. You will have autonomy and make decisions without anyone interrupting you or trying to get involved “- and so it was.
Ehud Barak (Photo: Tomer Neuberg, Flash 90)The Yisrael Beiteinu party, which ended the election campaign with a handsome achievement of 15 seats, became the key, the language of the scales and the kingdom of kings. Avigdor Lieberman, who in 2009 was defined as an “extreme right-wing nationalist” (to the attention of the reader Itamar Ben Gvir), was the one who gave Netanyahu the keys to the residence on Balfour Street. Contrary to what some commentators have argued, Lieberman did not “blink first” and was not “in Netanyahu’s pocket.” The day after the election, he went to Minsk, cut off all contact, turned off all phones and made Netanyahu sweat. The future conductor (who was not yet sure he was the winner) demanded from his entourage “Get me Yvette”. It turned out that after all, there was one number that Lieberman left connected to such a case. They talked, and Lieberman got everything he demanded and a little more as a bonus. Netanyahu, for his part, accepted the most precious of all, the government, and has not satiated it to this day. So Netanyahu certainly had the honor of raising a glass or two this week.
one of us
And back to the present. Two different trends were observed in the mandate polls: a slight decline for Netanyahu and a certain increase in chairman Yair Lapid’s future on the question of eligibility for prime minister. The weakening of the Likud, which in some polls even changed a prefix to 28-29 seats, does not look like an unexpected “boom”. The corona component, which has long since become a health issue and a significant political factor, continues to play against Netanyahu and his party.
Along with objective circumstances (even a super-magician like the prime minister can not exactly fight corona deniers, vaccine opponents and violators of restrictions), the discussions on the outline of the quarantine that have taken place in recent days have been no less embarrassing. Government meetings that go on for hours and hours into the night and end with nothing, the recordings, the shouts and the total mess – all of these do not really strengthen the support, not even among the right-wing voters who suffer from the corona and the closures no less than the center-left voters. Tens of thousands of citizens who have been personally harmed tend to blame the government and its leader.
One example of many kinds: This week I received a call from a good addict, a burnt-out babysitter, who is stuck at the Kiev airport and cannot return to Israel due to government decisions. The guy sounded angry and shocked: “It’s over, this time I’ll vote for Bennett. Just let me get back home and show them what it is, to poke people in foreign countries!”
Naftali Bennett (Photo: Oren Ben Hakon)If in the not-too-distant past, in previous systems, Netanyahu played on several levels at the same time, this time it goes less well for him. Donald Trump, the friend and brother, is no longer in the White House, and the big gifts will no longer come in the midst of the election campaign. Impressive political visits are difficult to hold in any case during the epidemic, but when you close Ben Gurion Airport and forbid all your citizens to leave the borders of the country, the whole issue of such visits becomes irrelevant and clearly harmful.
Less distribution of grants is also possible given the deficit and the overall economic situation. Despair, fatigue and nervousness affect the polls and they will be the significant factor in the current election. Meanwhile, this is reflected in the regression trends in the polls, although this is not a collapse or a dramatic fall, but a slight blow to the wing. What will happen in a month if the condition of the corona remains about as it is today – it is difficult to predict.
However, the second trend that can be identified in the polls, from the point of view of the Likud and Netanyahu, is a good reason to rejoice. It is not “Gideon” (so, in his first name only, it was decided in the Likud campaign to call the chairman Tikva Hadasha) and not Bennett are the candidates for prime minister blowing in Netanyahu’s back, but Lapid. This is exactly what Netanyahu hoped for from the first day of the election. The Likud’s campaign even when the polls predicted almost 20 seats for Saar’s party and even more so for Bennett. For Netanyahu, he is in front of Lapid, this is the ideal situation.
As long as he is facing the incumbent prime minister, a competitor from the right-wing camp – Netanyahu is in trouble. Not many of the right-wing voters are proficient in subtleties and know how to distinguish between the small letters on Likud agendas and new or right-wing hope. Gideon is “one of our own.” Bennett – one of our own no less. Therefore, anyone who is interested in a right-wing leader and does not belong to the “Netanyahu at any cost” camp will prefer to give his vote to another right-wing candidate who is not Netanyahu.
Torch is a completely different story. His confrontation with Netanyahu returns the average voter to the classic and convenient dilemma for Netanyahu: “This is either us or them. Right or left. Netanyahu or Lapid.” Netanyahu knows how to play well in this field. Play and win. Meanwhile, this is not an ongoing trend, but several surveys that have been published in recent days.
Interestingly enough, Netanyahu and Lapid have the same task here: to ensure that this situation of confrontation head-to-head without allowing Saar or Bennett to break the formula will continue unchanged until March 23.
- 2021 Elections: All the polls, articles and interpretations of leading reporters on the Maariv website