2020 elections: The large number of players who rose up against Netanyahu actually benefits him

“He has a rabbit up his sleeve, for Bibi. There can be no one. It is not possible to rush to the elections just like that, with no choice, no plan and no direction,” a Likud MK wondered to me this week, drinking a quick coffee between votes in the plenum. This is a veteran MK who has several election campaigns in his resume, one who is not willing to accept the reality of a fourth election in two years. He is not alone there, with his doubts and doubts. A significant number of his faction members, the coalition and the entire system have difficulty starting to live , And more in such crooked circumstances.

All those who are shocked by the very thought of going to the polls, continue to believe in the magic solution, at the last minute over the abyss, as in thrillers. The cautious and pessimistic members of the Knesset were quick this week to schedule family vacations, as far as possible in the reality of the Corona. A short trip to Eilat is also considered, if you have long months of a tedious campaign ahead of you. And in the case of Likud members – also the primaries for the list.

And if we have already touched on this, a word or two about the Likud internal elections. Despite the tension and despite the pressure in the third ten of the current Likud list, whoever spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu In recent days he has been able to tell that the tendency in Balfour is in favor of holding primaries. Netanyahu has some good reasons to want to refresh his list ahead of the upcoming campaign. Also promote the associates, who appear to be the main beneficiaries of the move, and also push to the end of the list those who are marked as smelt Gideon Saar (Indelible insult). In addition, some of the loudest MKs may find themselves in the borderline and even unrealistic places on the next list, at least the prime minister hopes.

Netanyahu on the election: “We will oppose the dissolution of the Knesset”

Especially now, when Saar is working on building the “new Likud,” it is important for the original Likud leader to beautify his list and upgrade his party’s showcase. An appropriate response to Saar’s claims that the Likud has become a bunch of dwarves serving the boss. The “issue of intellect-song” will also be treated in the primaries in all seriousness. In contrast to the main nucleus of Saar partners in his new party (Hauser, Handel and Shasha Bitton), the two young MKs from Saar camp are in no hurry to decide. Neither Michal Shir nor Sharan Hashakel said out loud that they were on their way out of the Likud. The two are sitting on the fence waiting. “Bibi has a rabbit to pull out of the sleeve.”

If the puzzle suddenly works out, the parties reach a solution, and the election crisis around the corner subsides – then why rush? What’s more, the places in the opening quintet of the “New Hope – Unity for Israel” party are already occupied, and those around Saar claim that more important and well-known figures are on the way to join. Song and intellect for them have not yet burned the possibility of staying in place, But the landlord, it seems, is not interested in seeing them and prefers to show them the way out through the primaries. Many things are possible in the current Likud internal elections. Assault support does not appear in the list of benefits of those who claim to enter a realistic place in the following list.

“But there are dynamics!”

Still, just before the opening shot of the election is heard and the mad race begins, the parties try, in their own way, to make sure that all possibilities for dialogue are exhausted. Also this week, when the countdown is already done according to the hours – and not according to the days – left for the coalition, The secret axis between the Likud and Blue and White continued to operate. Those who ran it behind the scenes are Hod Betzer, an associate and confidant of Bnei Gantz, and businessman Yaakov Atrakchi, one of the architects of the current coalition agreement. It is the main channel that is run alongside other factors from both parties, and anyone who has to offer something to the other side, rolls out his various ideas. For now without a breakthrough.

The optimists among Netanyahu’s associates are comforted by the sentence I heard from them many times this week: “But there is a dynamic! Bibi has already come to terms with the thought of the rotation!”. It is difficult to determine whether this is the case, or for Netanyahu the proposal that includes the realization of the rotation is another tactical step. In any case, every proposal submitted to Gantz in recent days did include the rotation clause, if not in November 2021, then in May 2022. But Gantz will, it is guaranteed, be the prime minister at the time – only to agree to the whole package. And what’s in it? Quite a few alternatives: to oust Israel Katz from the Ministry of Finance and offer the important case to Gantz (The idea was killed shortly after it was raised – Netanyahu’s entourage stated that “the Bolsheviks will not receive the treasure. Point”); To do an “exchange game” between Avi Nissenkorn and Amir Ohana, When Ohana receives the case and Nissenkorn moves to the Ministry of Internal Security (the idea was received with bitter ridicule among Gantz people: “What is the comparison at all between the power of the case and internal security?”).

There is no question thatAvi Nissenkorn Became a red sheet for the residents of the residence on Balfour Street. Unlike Magnz, with whom Netanyahu has learned to get along quite well, Nissenkorn only exaggerates and hardens his positions. He is tired of sitting in the office of the Minister of Justice without the ability to carry out everything that a full-fledged Minister of Justice, one who is not bound and not limited by coalition agreements, can carry out. “It’s about like you have a credit card with a million dollars in the bank account, but you are allowed to spend only NIS 50 a week on the nuts,” explain insiders. “My father does not intend to continue like this, even when he hears about the ideas for changing the agreements. If they try to restrict him even further – he will get up and go and take part of the party with him.”

Therefore, the proposal to remove Nissenkorn from the Ministry of Justice in exchange for a rotation, and another complete package of additional benefits for Ganz, fell through and disappeared even before taking off. Gantz’s unwillingness to give up Nissenkorn did not, of course, come out of pure loyalty, but because one does not have to be a polished politician to understand that ousting the justice minister means the immediate dissolution of blue and white. Ganz is still interested in trying to reach a rotation, but not at the cost of further weakening his power.

When Balfour realized that the dismissal of Nissenkorn would not take place, they presented Gantz with another, much more creative proposal: Conditional rotation in the blue-and-white chairman’s commitment that all legal appointments will be made solely by agreement between him and Netanyahu. If Nissenkorn cannot be thrown out of the bureau on Saladin Street, then he should be handcuffed and enshrined in law. What Gantz said about this proposal is not yet known. What is clear is that the man is now facing a difficult dilemma, perhaps among the most difficult in his life and certainly the most difficult in his political life: Should he believe Bibi again and give this one last chance for the miracle to happen and the rotation come true, or listen to all around him claim there is a limit Elections.

Bnei Gantz, Avi Nissenkorn (Photo: Knesset Spokeswoman, Danny Shem Tov)Bnei Gantz, Avi Nissenkorn (Photo: Knesset Spokeswoman, Danny Shem Tov)

The Voice parking lot is empty

The battered map knows how to read the battered Ganz no less well than the military maps. So the cruel dilemma is clear to him – going to the polls in the current situation with Bennett retaining a double-digit number of seats, with an ever-increasing onslaught, with a whole host of new stars warming up on the lines – could smash his party to the cliffs of the blocking percentage. relevant.

Already today there are those in the system who claim that Ganz is considering leaving this school, to which a period he does not want to get up in the morning. On the other hand, a strong group of his associates, including Hod Betzer, Omar Yankelevich and Maayan Israeli, urges Ganz not to give up, not now. Exhaust to the end and not go to the polls, from which he may not return. As mentioned, it is difficult for Bnei Gantz. It is difficult both because the dilemma is cruel, and also because the man is known as one who does not easily make decisions in life. The emotional aspect also does its part: Ganz has already proven that he can absorb humiliation and stay with PokerPace, but apparently he also has the limit that he will no longer be prepared to be stepped on and move on.

Compared to Ganz, Netanyahu and the concept of “emotion” do not go together. The cold bill tells him that the situation may not be ideal for going to the polls for now, but if necessary – we will go. For the prime minister, the picture has changed in recent weeks, and most of the changes have been in his favor. More peace agreements have been announced and set in motion, the visit to the UAE and Bahrain has already been scheduled for early January, so if there is already an election – let the public get perfect pictures of a leader who has achieved a breakthrough in regional peace. With or without Gabi Ashkenazi in the picture, the visit to the Gulf will be at the forefront of the Likud campaign.

In addition, it should be understood that the corona is still here and raging, the previous restrictions have not yet been lifted, and the tight restraint is already on the way, but the situation is no longer the same. Not like in spring and not like in autumn. The debut of the Israeli prime minister, the first vaccinated in the country, is scheduled for Saturday night. Netanyahu and the vaccine – and lo and behold, you got another picture for the Likud campaign. After all, when a few months ago, senior Likud officials claimed that it was forbidden to think about the election, at least until the summer came, because the epidemic could remove Netanyahu from power, no one thought that the vaccine would be in Israel as early as December.

And another element that until recently worried Netanyahu and prevented him from galloping safely towards further elections – Naftali Bennett His name. The polls that flattered the right and predicted Bennett’s dizzying success in the election saddened Netanyahu. “To the right is just a parking lot, the time will come and all those who fled from Magnz and have not yet found an alternative political home will get along well even without Bennett and his party,” they tried to reassure the prime minister, but he did not calm down. The Likud talked about “the solution to aligning Bennett’s curve,” and the solution came sooner than expected in the form of Saar and his new party. In the first polls, Saar Bennett took several seats, and it is estimated that this phenomenon may continue during the election campaign as well.

The two, who are ostensibly playing on the Likud and Netanyahu pitches, do not worry the Likud chairman at this stage, but rather reassure him. Netanyahu believes that there is nothing in the world that will make Bennett bend and give up the ambition to fight for prime minister in favor of Saar, And vice versa. Netanyahu, the king of splits and divisions, assumes that the large number of players who will compete against him will only do him good. If so, there is nothing to fear, at least not now. The road to elections is paved.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett (Photo: Yonatan Zindel, Flash 90)Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett (Photo: Yonatan Zindel, Flash 90)
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