A recent poll conducted by the Panels Politics Institute, headed by Menachem Lazar for the ‘Seven Nine’ program by Golan Yokfaz and Anat Davidov on 103FM, examined the political situation and examined various scenarios of unification and division between the parties running in the 24th Knesset elections.
Merav Michaeli with demonstrators for unification in the center-left ahead of the election (Photo: The Black Flags)
The poll revealed that a scenario of a political connection, which has not yet materialized, between the Israelis’ party of Ron Huldai To the Labor Party headed by Merav Michaeli Brings the list to 7 seats. This is in front of 4 seats for Israelis as an independent party, and 0 for Labor led by Michaeli, which continues to be below the blocking percentage.
On the right, one split actually manages to get a ‘passing’ score in public, with the Religious Zionist Party headed Bezalel Smutrich Crosses the blocking percentage line with 4 seats.
103FM survey (Photo: 103FM)Map of seats: The Likud party is headed Benjamin Netanyahu Again and wins a high figure – 31 seats – and continues the strengthening trend that has been recorded in recent weeks. A surprising strengthening has also been recorded for the future of Yair Lapid, Which first crosses the new hope of Gideon Saar And reaches 16 seats, while Saar’s party weakens to 14 seats and reaches third place.
As for the candidacy for prime minister, Netanyahu is still the leading candidate with 32 percent suitability for the position according to the respondents, followed by Saar with 21 percent and in third place Lapid with only 12 percent.
103FM survey (Photo: 103FM)Back to the map of seats: the ambition of Naftali Bennett To run for prime minister seems far-fetched, with the right winning only 11 seats in the poll. The joint list returned to its negative peak from the last period with 10 seats.
Against the background of the closure violations in the ultra-Orthodox sector, Shas and Torah Judaism recorded a slight decline and received 7 seats each.
Below the blocking percentage is still crowded, with the three parties closest to crossing it being the Economic Party led by Yaron Zelicha (2.6 percent), Labor (2.4 percent) and Jewish Power (1.8 percent). Moshe Ya’alon’s party, TLM, with only 0.2 percent.
103FM survey (Photo: 103FM)Right-wing scenario in the Netanyahu bloc: complete equality between the blocs
The map of the blocs, according to this survey, is taking a turn: for the first time, a breaking point can be identified for a bloc of Netanyahu’s opponents, which reaches 60 seats without the right. The Netanyahu bloc and the ultra-Orthodox parties reach 49 seats in this poll – which means that Netanyahu’s connection with the right produces complete equality between the blocs. According to these data, it seems that Netanyahu has a greater chance of forming a government, facing a bloc consisting of parties that will not sit side by side in the same coalition.
The question of the questions remains, in this scenario, what will you do to the right. Joining the Likud significantly increases the chances of giving power to Netanyahu. On the other hand, joining a bloc led by Yair Lapid or Gideon Saar brings the latter closer to power. In any case, the weakening of the right in recent polls, and the assumption that Smutrich will sit in the Netanyahu coalition, do not guarantee that Bennett will retain the right to be a Libra in future polls.
The survey was conducted last night by Menachem Lazar – director of Panels Politics. It was attended by 517 members of the Panel4All Respondents Panel to conduct online research. An application to participate in the survey was sent to 2,958 members of the panel. The respondents in the survey constitute a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel, Jews and Arabs alike – aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error is 4.4 percent.