The famous asteroid “god of chaos” poses less of a threat than we thought, experts have said.
Apophis has no chance of hitting the Earth in the next century, according to the European Space Agency and Nasa.
The asteroid is consistently at the center of horror stories because it was thought to have little chance of hitting the Earth. That meant it was added to the European Space Agency’s “Risk List”, and the subject of detailed consideration.
Apophis – named after Egyptian theology, or “lord of chaos” – was first discovered in 2004, and shortly afterwards researchers suggested that it could hit Earth in 2029 and 2036. these effects were further investigated by further research, reducing the anxiety.
But experts were still concerned about a possible catastrophe in 2068. In part because of the asteroid’s big name, as well as the potential danger, it became notorious and it was written consistently as a potential threat to the planet later in this century.
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The asteroid took a very close approach this month, however, when astronauts had the opportunity to scan with Nasa equipment. That gave them a better view of the orbit of the asteroid, and allowed them to be confident in controlling that it could affect at any time in the next century.
Apophis will fly past the Earth in 2029, passing at a distance of less than 35,000 kilometers and so close that it will be visible to the naked eye. That close approach was one reason scientists were concerned about the latest flyby this year: coming so close to Earth means that our gravity could be affected, and it was sad for researchers to find out how that might change its course.
If the asteroid were to pass through the dangerous “gravitational keyhole” on that 2029 trip, it might be able to find a trip that would take it to an accident in 2069. The new data allowed science to get a much more accurate picture of a path for 2029, however – narrowing down the window of opportunity and allowing them to be sure that it would not go through that very important keyhole.
“The impact of 2068 is no longer in the capacity scenario, and our calculations show no impact risk for at least the next 100 years,” said Davide Farnocchia of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). ) at Nasa; recitation.
“With the help of recent optical observation and additional radar observations, the uncertainty in the Apophis orbit has fallen from hundreds of kilometers to just a few kilometers when projected to 2029. This has greatly improved the experience set in 2029 provides more certainty about future movement, so that we can now remove Apophis from the risk list. “
Having a place on the risk list does not mean that long distance is at risk. There has to be nothing but zero chance of hitting the Earth.
If an asteroid is added to the list, researchers will continue to better understand the orbit and whether it could lead to a collision with our planet in the next 100 years. If astronauts can be sure it is not a threat, it will be removed from the list.
Apophis refused to leave that list, however, and dismissed scientists ’attempts to find evidence that it would not fall into our planet. As he went around, there was a growing fear of the “god of chaos” – but he can now rest.
“Apophis was discovered and early work was done to locate and understand its orbit, when today’s planetary defense activities were still in their infancy,” said Juan Luis Cano of the Near Earth Coordinate Center. ESA land in statement.
“This happened at such an early stage in control as a strong incentive to improve our ability to accurately predict the movement of these interesting and dangerous objects. With Apophis removed from the Risk List today, we are closing a very light chapter in the history of planetary defense ”.