As reports emerged Thursday of another Iranian strike on an Israeli civilian ship, the conflict between Iran and Israel appeared to be increasingly dangerous at sea.
This corresponds to a pattern that has not emerged in recent months. Iran has taken a more aggressive stance in a number of ways, both systematically and in its work, as tensions have arisen with the new U.S. administration and Iran’s enemies in the region.
Thursday’s attack was not the first time Iran is said to have struck an Israeli-owned cargo ship. On February 26, the explosion of the Israeli-owned MV Helios Ray hit a Bahamian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. Netanyahu accused Iran of attacking the ship. Iran swiftly denied the allegation, but experts say the attack carries signs of attacks previously carried out on Tehran.
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The operation appears to have been carefully planned, and was a reflection of a series of attacks on tankers in 2019 and an Iranian campaign against shipping vessels four decades ago.
The incident early Thursday morning – in which an Israeli-owned vessel came under a missile fire in the Gulf of Oman – did not come out of thin air. According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel has been carrying out secret strikes on Iranian ships, and other Iranian cargo ships. If true, the latest attack may be part of a more decisive Iranian response to these actions.
The report said Israel has targeted at least 12 ships heading for Syria, most of them carrying oil from Iran in violation of international sanctions, with mines and members -other weapons. Some of the alleged Israeli strikes, which took place in the Red Sea and other areas, focused on Iranian-linked military behavior, the report said. The attacks did not sink the tankers but forced at least two of the vessels to return to port in Iran.
Israel was trying to stop oil trading because it believed the profits were funded by regional financiers, the report said.
The route taken by the Israeli ship #lori just after attacking. There are no casualties or injuries, the ship continued its voyage to India pic.twitter.com/6MdN6hN02f
– Francesco (@FrankCalcagno) March 25, 2021
If Israel has indeed been attacking Iranian shipping for more than a year, why has the Islamic Republic decided to respond now?
For one, Tehran has been desperate to respond to a series of weapons problems. Iranian senior nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was traveling on a highway outside the capital in November 2020 when he was killed by what was reported as a remote-controlled machine gun. Tehran blamed Israel.
The murder came after months of mysterious explosions in Iran, including an explosion and the destruction of an advanced centrifuge collection facility at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, widely believed to be an act of sabotage that took place. made by Israel.
Moreover, Iran is still under U.S. sanctions that they want a way out of.
While Syria is plagued by a ten-year civil war, Iran has been trying to open a new face on the Israeli border. He has sent friendly forces to Golan Heights of Syria to establish an infrastructure for attacks on Israeli targets. They have also been working to arm his Hezbollah terrorist group with precision rocket capabilities, delivering weapons through Syria to Lebanon.
However, Israel has shown potential in sniffing out Iran’s actions and a strong willingness to stop them by using an armed force, launching hundreds, even thousands, of strikes against Iran and its agents in Syria and Iraq since 2011.
Lebanese Hezbollah supporters carry the coffin of Jihad Mughniyeh, who was killed in an alleged Israeli flight, during his funeral in the southern bank of Beirut on January 19, 2015. (Joseph Eid / AFP)
“This is about Iran being overwhelmed by its attempts to get Israel out of Syria, where Israel has control, now working in their own backyard against Israel because, first of all, it is a proven modus operandi, “said Michael Eisenstadt, director of the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy.
At the same time, Iran is working with renewed confidence. Donald Trump – an invisible, pugnacious U.S. president who walked away from the nuclear deal and ordered the assassination of Quds Soleimani leader of the Revolutionary Guard force Qassem Soleimani – is out of the U.S.. His follower, Joe Biden, seems determined to be introduced to the Middle East, and has returned his desire to the 2015 nuclear deal.
Biden has also said that he will not be so unconditionally generous to countries in the Arab bloc and Israel against Iran: He waited for weeks to call Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after his election; he has begun pushing Saudi Arabia on its human rights agenda; In February, Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed concerns to Egypt about its human rights policies and plans to buy Russian fighter jets.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will speak on foreign policy at the State Department, March 3, 2021 in Washington. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / Pool tro AP)
And WSJ’s own article, based on talks with U.S. officials, may be a sign of discontent in Biden’s administration in Israel.
“In my opinion, the Americans released the report,” said Raz Zimmt, an Iranian scholar at the Institute for National Security Studies. “Apparently they’re not as happy with what we’re doing, and that’s probably the most interesting thing of this whole story.”
As Iran perceives the emerging light of day between the US and its allies, it has been making moves across the region.
Dr. Raz Zimmt (YouTube screenshot)
In Iraq, a series of rocket attacks in February struck near the U.S. embassy and bases hosting U.S. forces. Earlier this month, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said they attacked a Saudi oil facility in the port city of Jeddah.
Iran has also assessed confidence in its nuclear program. Iran’s chief executive on Sunday reaffirmed the Islamic Republic’s “firm policy” that Washington must lift all sanctions before Tehran returns to its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran has consistently been adamant the limitations of the contract, including the amount of rich uranium it can accumulate and the purity it can enrich.
“This may be related to the new administration,” Zimmt said. “And Ioran estimates that the threat that existed a few months ago under Trump is no longer there, so they can push the envelope.”
“They could also estimate that Israel is restricted, even if I don’t know if that’s a right idea – but they may think that Israel’s freedom of action is limited because of the new administration and because the political crisis. ” So they are willing to take opportunities that they have been willing to take in the past. “
