Tehran, Iran – Unofficial negotiations between Iran and world powers that signed the 2015 sick nuclear deal seem to be the only way forward as neither side seems willing to take the first step.
Iran says the United States, which abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, must return to full compliance under the agreement by lifting the economic sanctions it has imposed.
President Joe Biden has called former US President Donald Trump’s “biggest pressure” campaign to fail, but nevertheless urges Iran to take steps back to deliver on its promises under the agreement. reduced in response to the sanctions.
This week, Iran said it was considering a bid with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to hold unofficial talks with the P4 + 1 – China, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and Germany without the US – that would also include the US as a “guest”.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iranian Project at the International Crisis Group, said officials from Tehran and Washington are likely to sit together at an informal meeting held by the EU in the coming weeks.
“There, they appear to be agreeing to a set of interim measures to buy more time to negotiate a timetable for a return to full compliance with the JCPOA,” he told Al Jazeera.
The meeting was called as a result of the latest move in Iran on Tuesday to voluntarily suspend the Additional Protocol – a document that will be given wide-ranging inspection authorities to the International Atomic Energy Organization (IAEA) of Iran’s nuclear sites.
In a statement after Iran suspended the granting of short-term investigative capabilities to the UN nuclear watchdog, the three European signatories to the nuclear treaty called the move “dangerous”.
“It will severely restrict the IAEA’s access to sites and information relevant to defense,” E3 foreign ministers said. “It will also limit the IAEA’s ability to monitor and verify Iran’s nuclear program and joint operations.” related to nuclear. “
Three-month window
But an agreement reached by the Iranian government with the IAEA on Sunday appears to have bought more time for diplomacy.
After IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi traveled to Tehran, the two sides agreed that Iran would continue to monitor the activity of its nuclear sites, but would not provide the camera tapes.
Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency announced that if the U.S. does not impose sanctions on Iran within those three months, the data would be permanently erased, leaving a gap in the IAEA study on the nuclear activity of Iran country.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said earlier in the week that the U.S. has imposed 1,600 sanctions on Iran, all of which must be lifted to restore the nuclear deal.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also said this week that Iran could increase uranium enrichment to 60 percent purity from the current 20 percent if the country needs it, but stressed her country is not seeking nuclear weapons.
On Wednesday, Iran’s ambassador to Geneva told the UN-backed conference on disarmament that it is up to the United States to make the first move.
“The onus is on the offending party to return, resume and compensate for the damages as well as to ensure that they do not return,” said Ambassador Esmaeil Baghaei Hamaneh.
‘Increasing suspicion’
Vaez said the IAEA agreement “delayed an emergency that could have wiped out diplomacy before it even had a chance to go off the ground”.
Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative, said the time spent buying the agreement could open the way for both sides to negotiate – and implement – a roadmap back to JCPOA compliance.
She told Al Jazeera that “it will not be the end of the world but it will not be good” unless the signatories of a nuclear deal are reached in those three months.
“Iran will continue to take steps out of the JCPOA and reduce cooperation with the IAEA, increasing suspicions that it is working on arms,” Slavin said of the implications of a situation not dealt with.
“Iranians will continue to be affected by sanctions. Iranian politicians who oppose the treaty and rest in tensions with the West are becoming stronger, and Iran is likely to find it more difficult to deal with in Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan , and cetera. ”
Presidential election loom
The imminent approach of the June primary elections in Iran is adding to the pressure to find a solution to the dilemma of the nuclear deal.
President Hassan Rouhani, who won his office by pledging to engage with the West and improve Iran’s economy by ending loneliness, is nearing the end of his second term.
It is widely believed that a conservative or a hardliner – who may come from an armed background – will win the election.
The last major elections in Iran came in February 2020 when the lowest turnout in the country’s f40-year history allowed the current hard-line parliament and the December law persuaded the Rouhani administration to enrich uranium encourage and limit IAEA inspections.
“It is much easier to negotiate a return to the nuclear deal with individuals who negotiated it in the first place than to work with a new team of characters – or old ones from the days of Ahmadinejad – who are much more hostile to the United States, ”Slavin said referring to former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Vaez agreed saying: “It will be a dangerous gambit for Washington not to completely restore the JCPOA before its main supporters in Iran leave power.”
But he said it would be unlikely that the next president from Iran would take out what has been state policy because the superintendent is always the final decision.
In the meantime, however, Rouhani’s opponents are likely to be more opposed to dealing with international stakeholders.
On Monday, angry legislators said Iran’s agreement with the IAEA was “illegal” and called on the president to hand over to the judges for legal punishment.
The heated conflict even led the superintendent to intervene, saying they had to resolve their differences so that one voice could be conveyed from Iran to the world.