Menachem Begin had 43 seats when he formed the revolutionary government of ’77. Yitzhak Rabin had 44 seats when he formed the coup government of ’92. Benjamin Netanyahu had only 27 seats when he returned the Likud to power in 2009. The Likud was the second largest party, after Tzipi Livni’s Kadima. A decade and a half earlier, Netanyahu had formed a government with 32 seats, and even then the Likud was the second largest party, after Labor. But a direct election for prime minister dictated the outcome.
Naftali Bennett wants to be prime minister with ten or maybe a dozen seats. He wants to be prime minister even if his party, on the right, will be the fourth largest, after the Likud, after there is a future, after a new hope. Call it Israeli insolence. Call it a jump over the belly button. Call it what you will. This is what Bennett wants.
Naftali Bennett in an interview about the Corona failures at the Marciano Foundation (Photo: News 12)
Legally, there is no impediment to also getting what he wants. A coalition led by any party is allowed, provided it wins the Knesset’s trust. In other countries, especially in Europe, it is customary to form minority coalitions. It is common to see governments led by relatively small parties. Politically, mathematics would probably allow Bennett to maneuver toward the Prime Minister’s House. We will soon explain how. Public – This is another interesting question. Let’s put it this way: Is it legitimate for a small-sized party leader to take advantage of a complex political situation and be, with ten or a dozen seats, everyone’s prime minister?
Naftali Bennett (Photo: screenshot shared by the Israel Democracy Institute and Mako)- 2021 Elections: All the polls, articles and interpretations of leading reporters on the Maariv website
From Birgitta to Bennett
In the political arena I heard this week some mentions of the excellent Danish TV series “Burgen”. The third time the series was mentioned, I realized it was probably not a coincidence. Apparently there are those who spread the television analogy, but hoping to assimilate a possible narrative, perhaps out of an understanding that we are at a special event. Either way, fans of the genre are probably familiar with the series, but may not remember that in the plot – as sometimes happens in Denmark – the prime minister, Birgitta Nyborg, does not head the largest party. Her party, the Moderates, has 31 seats in parliament of 179. Its partner, Labor, has 35. Its rival, the Liberals, has 32. And yet – Birgitta is the head. She is the component and director.
It’s Bennett. At least in his imagination. And the account is simple. We will do it with the help of the numbers from a mid-week news survey here. Of course, not every survey has the same option. The weighted average of all the surveys on the index website does not yet allow for this combination. But if a news poll here marks a trend, the significance is clear. Maybe Bennett could really be Birgitta.
With one difference: Israel is not Denmark. In Israel, there is no tradition of forming minority governments, as there is in Denmark, and there is no tradition of a small party forming a government. True, this does not always have to be the largest party. But there is no similarity of a mandate gap between Bibi and Tzipi a decade ago, to a gap of 20 between Bibi and Bennett this time. What will Bennett say about that? Here is one option, which is considered by some of the players. Bennett will offer Netanyahu a rotation according to the following format: the Likud is equal to 30, the right is equal to 10. This means three years for Netanyahu, one year for Bennett – just the opposite. First Bennett (because no idiot will agree with Netanyahu on rotation when he is first) for a year, then Netanyahu for three. And what will Netanyahu do in the waiting year? He will conduct his trial, chair the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of the Knesset (because of the indictment he cannot be a minister), and suppress any sign of the beginning of a Likud uprising.
Naftali Bennett (Photo: Hadas Porush, Flash 90)Rectangular to torch
If Bennett’s situation is reminiscent of that of the fictional Danish prime minister (which is based on a real character), Yair Lapid’s situation with Bennett is reminiscent of that of Tzipi Livni versus Netanyahu. She also had more seats. But she had no coalition. Torch can not do without Bennett. Bennett can do without Torch – if Netanyahu wants it. Now the question is what will Torch do with this disturbing information. Will, as he did a year ago when he realized his situation vis-à-vis Bnei Gantz, move aside to let Bennett be prime minister. Or maybe he will do as he did this year and announce that either they are playing by his rules or they are going home (Ya’alon and Shelach really went home). Either Bennett joined his coalition because he is the leading party in the bloc, or he will go with whomever he wants. Or there will be more elections. That is: Lapid will not give up.
If the election ends about as predicted by the poll here news, the coalition train period will be fascinating. Four party leaders aspire to be prime ministers. Each has a big ego and a small gun. A gun with one bullet in it. Ostensibly, Bennett holds them all by the throat. But this is not a perfect grip. In fact, Bennett may fall victim to two events that will make it difficult for him to realize his full electoral potential. One – an internal party event that will force him to compromise with Netanyahu. That is, if it turns out that Bennett may be holding Netanyahu and Lapid in a sensitive place, but that there are MKs within his party who are holding him in a sensitive place, and intend to direct him in this way and not another.
The second event that may loosen Bennett’s grip is an event of cooperation, coordinated or uncoordinated, between Netanyahu and Lapid. Yes, yes – such a thing can happen. Even coordinated. Netanyahu and Lapid. And not that God forbid any of them will sit with the other in the coalition. It will not happen. Each has an interest in defeating the other. But they also have one thing in common: making sure Bennett does not emerge from behind and steal their Knesset and coalition. Both can certainly decide that they are not giving in to Bennett. Imagine this happening. Netanyahu’s press conference. The day after the election. PM Olmert Announces: Whatever it is, one of the two major parties is forming the coalition. Either me or Torch. Lapid’s press conference. An hour after Netanyahu. The head of the second largest party announces: Whatever it is, one of the two major parties is the one that forms the coalition. Either me or Netanyahu. And if Bennett thinks otherwise, he has the responsibility to drag the country into a fifth round of elections. See him do it and survive the fifth round.
Yair Lapid (Photo: Screenshot)From Balfour to Security
Bennett of course has other options besides sitting in Balfour, on the prime minister’s throne. Bennett can say to himself: I have a small party. I have one strong card, and need to play with it carefully, because otherwise, someone might break the tools and in the next round I may not have a card at all. He can go to Netanyahu and announce: If you want me, you will have a full defense minister, and a full justice minister. And you will have a stable coalition – but only as long as I am inside. One tweet, and I break it down. One exercise, and I connect with opponents to establish an alternative. He will probably get what he wants from Netanyahu, and he will know, and Netanyahu will know, that everything is on limited bail, until the prime minister is no longer comfortable.
He could do the same to the torch, and perhaps to the torch and storm. You will fight over rotation, if you feel like fighting. I will sit in confidence, four years. You (Lapid) will take care of neutralizing Merav Michaeli, and the other leftists, you will allow Ayelet Shaked to handle the justice system. Not in Ohana’s brutality. In its rules. In moderation and determination. You (Saar) will make sure that no one initiates peace processes behind your back, concessions and setbacks. I’m going to hang out at Buttlers and gain popularity.
Standard deviation
One can admire the fact that Netanyahu has 38% who want him as prime minister, and Gideon Saar has a pretty similar number, 34%. At the same time, however, one should not admire the fact that most of those who want Saar as prime minister are center-left voters. That is, voters who would also prefer Avigdor Lieberman’s rabbit (if he breeds a rabbit) over Netanyahu.
2. According to most surveys, RAAM does not pass the blocking percentage. But I found out: in a large part of the surveys in which RAAM does not pass the percentage of Arabs who responded to the survey is very low. That is – the findings are at high risk.
3. On the other hand: it is quite possible that the Arab representation in the Knesset dropped to 8-9 seats. In terms of their numerical power, the Arabs are worth more than 20 seats. It may be convenient to form coalitions, but it is an unreasonable gap in the social sense.
There are at least four parties that can pass or not pass the blocking percentage and determine on election day itself the results, based on a few hundred or thousands of votes. Meretz, RAAM, blue and white, religious Zionism. The work is also not entirely out of danger.
Gantz’s dilemma is not simple. It would have been relatively easy for him to decide on retirement if in most polls he had not passed. But in the past week and a half Blue and White has gone through more than five surveys. So why retire? Because the public thinks that in the end it will fail? Ultimately, what determines is not what the public thinks but what the public votes for. That’s why Gantz is still with us.
This week we used the data from the index website, here news and surveys of all the media.