In the last few years the three west wind turbine manufacturers have taken bold steps to compete over the three-legged wind turbine revenue stool; onshore, offshore and services.
After construction, reconfiguration and a slight build-up of the tech promises, GE, Vestas and Siemens Gamesa have more similar businesses. There is little consolidation left to be squeezed out in the region. So, if we are now entering the end game for west wind OEMs, who will emerge?
Siemens Gamesa was reorganized at the main board last year with Andreas Nauen, head of its market-leading offshore unit, taking over as CEO of the group in June. His strategy unveiled at capital markets day in August was simple: the best reproduction of the offshore unit’s processes and behaviors across the industry was a recurring theme. The company had already found Senvion’s services business bankrupt in several areas, which helped close the gap in revenue for its services compared to Vestas.
Vestas was also leading onshore but the offshore wind division was a challenge for MHI Vestas, its 50:50 JV with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. In October Vestas bought MHI, which took a 2.5 percent stake in Vestas as a reward for their share of the JV.
GE launched the 12-plus Haliade-X megawatt platform in 2018 and confirmed its intention to become a market leader for offshore wind turbines.
The world’s largest wind turbine manufacturer, Vestas, has now made a play.
Vestas back on a flat with competitors off the coast … soon
Vestas announced its full-year results Wednesday with little surprise. It hit management, with some pre-specified warranty provisions greater than usual. The big news, no pun intended, is the launch of the world’s largest wind turbine, the V236-15MW.
That 236m rotor diameter puts it just ahead of the 222m giant Siemens Gamesa, launched last May, which is estimated at 14 MW with the dial capacity up to 15 MW. Vestas said serial production would begin in 2024 with a prototype installed in 2022.
The launch brings Vestas back to a fully competitive mode in the offshore area, after publicly admitting that the smaller 10 MW turbines would not go ahead for the next wave of projects .
Shashi Barla, Wood MacKenzie ‘s chief analyst for the global wind supply chain, said that despite the start of the competition, there are plenty of projects that could be listed soon.
“I think they’ve been behind the competition for at least two years,” said Barla. GE Renewable Energy launched the Haliade-X platform in March 2018. Barla said Vestas could accelerate the development process if it pours more investment.
During the company’s full-year results, Vestas CEO Henrik Andersen said an annual capex for the offshore wind industry would be around € 250 million ($ 303 million) per year from this year to 2025.
Andersen also said talks with delegates were about to begin and that they expected “a few big orders” in 2021 and 2022.
Barla said there were a few doors open for Vestas here. Licensing delays in the U.S. mean there are still more GWs of opportunities that have not signed turbine contracts. At the same time, in markets without major penalties about installation dates, Vestas could compete immediately, even if production was three years away and installation four.
“It gives players like Vestas a place to go and build their next generation turbine,” said Barla, adding that many projects that have been awarded contracts in the 2017 tender in Germany have yet to be approved. to turbine contracts.
Offshore to move Siemens Gamesa to # 1
Siemens Gamesa’s latest results were very encouraging. Revenue for the quarter was up 15 percent compared to the same period last year. (Siemens Gamesa reports full-year results for the October-September financial year.)
Landing orders for the year rose € 1.62 billion ($ 1.96 billion), down 8 percent year-on-year. But between COVID and the company ‘s turnaround from running higher yields over volume, the upgrade is a good start, with pre – interest earnings and taxes (EBIT) rising to 5.3 per cent for the quarter, compared to a negative 6.8 percent for the same quarter last year. year.
Barla expects Siemens Gamesa, the current leader in the field of offshore turbines, to deploy Vestas and become a major player in turbines worldwide. Siemens Gamesa’s offshore share is expected to rise from less than 20 percent of gigawatts sold worldwide to more than half of global sales, a move that will bring revenue -into too.
“When it comes to venues and activity in the next four to five years, Siemens Gamesa is going to take on the commercial leadership position, when both onshore and offshore go together, even in terms of income, ”said Barla. “Vestas has a bit of a job to catch up with just because they have finally introduced next-generation technology. If they had introduced this two years ago, they might be in a very comfortable position today. “