The path of the Palestinian leader to elections is fraught with danger

The main order issued last month, calling for what the first Palestinian elections in 15 years, came from talks launched with Hamas last year aimed at unprecedented levels of anti-crisis.

The Trump administration had cut off all aid and proposed a Mideast plan that was broadly in favor of Israel and would allow it to deploy controlled parts of the West Bank. A U.S. settlement agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates last summer halted a ceasefire but left Palestinians increasingly isolated in the region.

Abbas thus began talks with Hamas, the Islamic militant group that captured Gaza from its forces in 2007. These talks ended with the main order calling for legislative elections on May 22 and primary elections on 31 July.

It is far from clear that the elections will be held. Doing this requires an agreement between the secular movement of Abbas Fatah and Hamas, which has been hard divided for more than a decade despite many attempts at reconciliation. Both sides plan to meet in Cairo this week.

The outcome of the talks will largely depend on 85-year-old Abbas. He has spent decades relentlessly seeking the state of Palestine in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, areas captured by Israel in the 1967 war. Instead, it has become governing an increasingly independent and impartial Palestinian Authority confined to parts of the West Bank that are owned.

Reconciliation with Hamas and holding elections could fulfill its legitimacy and meet the West’s long-standing demands for accountability. But even limited influence by Hamas, which is considered a terrorist group by Israel and Western nations, could lead to international isolation and loss of vital support – as it did after Hamas won the last parliamentary elections. won in 2006.

In a meeting with Palestinian journalists, EU representative Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff welcomed the call for elections but rejected several requests to explain how the EU would deal with the impact of Hamas.

“Will you put the cart before the horse?” He said. “Why don’t we start with the horse.”

President Joe Biden has backed support for the Palestinians and vowed to take a fairer approach, but the Mideast conflict is likely to bring a distant backdrop to emergencies such as the coronavirus pandemic, and the US is unlikely to engage with any Palestine. a government that includes Hamas. Even an independent government backed by Hamas could cause problems for Western donors.

Elections could prevent the break-up of Fatah Abbas’s party. He has not followed a companion, and could face a leadership challenge from Marwan Barghouti, the popular Fatah leader who is serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison for his role in an intifada. 2000, or rebellion.

“For Barghouti, running for president is the only way out of jail, or at least this is what he thinks,” said Ali Jarbawi, a professor of political science at Birzeit University in the West Bank.

Abbas may also have to quarrel with Mohammed Dahlan, a Fatah rival who was convicted in absentia of corruption allegations by a Palestinian court after he was expelled by Abbas. Dahlan has a support base in his native Gaza and powerful allies in the United Arab Emirates, where he lives as a refugee.

“So far all the talk is about having one list (Fatah), but it’s not likely to be two lists or even three,” said Jehad Harb, a Palestinian political analyst. “Or Barghouti can wait for the primary election.”

Hamas would face its own challenges in elections, where voters could be held accountable for the economic devastation in Gaza, which has sustained three wars with Israel and a strong Israeli-Egyptian blockade from the seizure of power by the militant group.

One idea is to make the rounds a list of Fatah and Hamas put together, but that would largely resolve the outcome of the parliamentary election before any votes are cast, raising questions about its validity.

Yara Hawari, senior analyst at Al-Shabaka, Palestine’s international think tank, says either that if the elections go ahead there will be an “engineered outcome” that will allow Fatah and Hamas to maintain the status quo up.

Both Palestinian authorities have suppressed dissent through torture and irregular arrest in the areas under their control, and Israel regularly detains Palestinian militants and breaks down protests and boycott movements.

“It has already been rigged,” Hawari said. “If you have a society that is completely politically politicized, that is routinely punished for being against politics – that is already tense.”

The unresolved issues between Fatah and Hamas can also be used as pre-orders to postpone or postpone the elections.

Both sides still have to agree on a court to resolve election disputes and a way to get polling stations in Gaza, where Palestinian security forces have not been present since Hamas seized power. The Palestinian Authority has also demanded that Israel allow Palestinians in East Jerusalem to participate in the elections.

Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Investigation, said Abbas could postpone or postpone the elections and blame Israel or Hamas.

“However, if Israel does not give him that preamble and Hamas does not give him that preamble, then his hand will be forced and he will have to go to elections,” he said.

Abbas, whose main term ended in 2009, already has a crisis of legitimacy, and Western donors may reconsider their support if elections are canceled. Abbas could also face back from the Palestinian people.

“The process itself has dynamics, and although Abbas has control over it, I think his calculations need to change depending on what options he has left, if he decides unilaterally in elections. put it off, “Shikaki said.” There will be great disagreement within Fatah about this. “