Canada announces its operating numbers at 13:30 GMT and there is a second consecutive month of decline on the cards. As we get closer to the release time, here’s a preview of economists and researchers of six major banks.
Ahead of the jobs report, USD / CAD is trading above 1.28, showing dollar strength rather than the recent rise in oil prices.
TDS
“Job losses should accelerate to 90K in January, reflecting tougher locks imposed across Eastern Canada. Look for a congested impact on services with significant attraction from retail and other targeted businesses, and a greater decline for part-time employees. Hours worked will provide an understanding of growth conditions in January and unemployment should push north by 9%. “
NBF
“COVID-19 continued its case for damage to the country early in the year, advertising another weak month for the labor market. We want a -60.0K print, with losses again concentrated in the regions most affected by social distance measures. Coupled with a decrease in the participation rate, this withdrawal could directly translate into a 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate to 8.7%. Looking further ahead, employment is expected to resume in February, assuming that some of the measures put in place to gradually introduce the spread of the virus . ”
Economics RBC
“We expect Canada’s core earnings to fall by 40K. This would build on the 53K low in December which was the first decline in top-line earnings since last spring. The January report appears to show that job losses remain high among low-paid workers. Extended EI and CRB programs provide substantial income to those employees who leave the purchasing power of a home intact even in the face of a weakening labor market situation. ”
Capital Economics
“We expect the Canadian Labor Force Survey to show that another 100K earnings fell in January, following the tightening of coronavirus restrictions in late December.”
CIBC
“We’ve seen this story before. Like the first wave, the second wave of COVID-19 has left public officials with little choice but to shut down parts of the economy. Similar to earlier measures, businesses such as accommodation and food services, arts, entertainment and leisure, and transport are likely to see the biggest job losses from the second round of restrictions. While strict rules measures show that this year’s drafts are similar to those of the first wave, the good news is that the impact on overall employment will not be as severe as it was in early 2020. many businesses have changed since then, as have individuals who have shifted buying patterns. That will work to reduce some of the pain from the latest ones. ”
Citibank
“Canadian employment is expected to fall again in January, albeit with a smaller decline compared to the revised 52.7K decline in December. The unemployment rate should rise to 8.9% from a revised 8.8% in December. “