News 12 commentator on Arab affairs, Ehud Yaari, spoke this morning (Sunday) with Erel Segal and Yariv Oppenheimer on 103FM about the Biden administration’s policy in the Middle East and its decision to suspend the sale of F-35 aircraft to the United Arab Emirates under the Avraham agreements.
Biden signs first orders as US president at White House (Photo: Reuters)
The deal with the F35 is delayed. How do you analyze the Biden administration’s attitude toward all recent Abrahamic agreements?
“The attitude of this administration, as Foreign Minister Blinken eloquently put it, is a positive attitude, he has pledged to continue to promote these agreements, to bring about further agreements. I do not know how much practice they will bother in this matter, but their trend and line is clear. That they are taking now are steps that are almost routine. I mean, they say – Trump has made deals in the last few months and we want to look at them. There is the F35 deal and the UAVs attacking the emirates, they are watching and anyway the F35 was not supposed to get there until about six Years. I do not think this deal will be canceled.
“Regarding Saudi Arabia, the people of Biden have said in advance, before being elected, that they do not want to be part of any of the terrible war that the Saudis have been waging in Yemen for six years without complete success. So there is a question of whether the US will not just give them officers to direct Yemeni air activity. Have given up to now unless they are given accurate armament etc. because in any case the Saudi pilots even if you give them 12 digit coordinates they will miss the target. They are going to end the war in Yemen, I think it will happen in a few months. “
Could the administration say they want other forces in Saudi Arabia? Or just make noises of anger but come to terms with the situation that was.
“I think the United States will adopt a policy of very public reprimands and very clear reservations, but by no means will it reach a situation where they will endanger the cooperation systems and semi-alliances they have for example with a country like Saudi Arabia. Beyond that, they will not go. They want to end the war in Yemen as a major task. “
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What will they say? How to stop?
“Bring as they caused the Saudis and Qataris to produce a semblance of reconciliation, so they will want to negotiate such moves in the past between Iran’s Houthi partners in Yemen and the Saudis on an end-of-war arrangement. One of the most important columnists in Saudi Arabia, for example, is saying that if this is the case and the Americans are going to revive the nuclear deal, then Saudi Arabia can enter into a kind of arrangement that he calls a “ceasefire.” That is, it is impossible to end the dispute with Iran. Make peace but a kind of armistice can be done.
“Why is this important to us? Because the problem for us is that we will fight and we will fight together with the Arabs so that the US will present the toughest conditions for Iran for the renewal of the nuclear deal but if that does not work we will see our Sunni Gulf partners run their affairs aside with The Iranians. “There has been an Iranian initiative on the table for several years that all the countries of the Persian Gulf will reach an agreement that will ensure stability and calm on the shipping lanes.”
We are just before the Palestinian Authority elections. How will this affect the next government in Israel?
“Right now there is an election dance, there are no more elections in the PA. The decisive moment is three days before we go to the polls, March 20, so the lists for the PA elections should be organized, if at all. I think the big problem right now is that we are standing and watching. From the side in the negotiations between Fatah and Hamas on running a joint list, on integrating Hamas into Palestinian Authority institutions, in favor of returning Hamas as a politically active force to the West Bank when we know that in the basement below the political activity there is the other activity.
“Is Israel ready? It must decide, both the government and the serious opposition leaders must quietly make it clear to Americans and Europeans and Arabs that such a situation, Hamas’ return to the West Bank, because Abu Mazen wants to gain a drop of legitimacy is not acceptable to us and we must remember the 2006 Palestinian elections. President Bush actually forced Sharon and they led to Hamas’ victory. Fatah’s condition was that if Hamas ran in the election he should accept and commit to the platform of the Oslo Accords. Hamas would do it one situation, he has no intention of doing it. Let them run, get elected, “To penetrate the institutions of the Palestinian Authority to re-establish itself in the West Bank is only a state that has lost its sight, think.”
On the issue of East Jerusalem, without Israel’s approval, are there really no elections in the PA?
“I disagree with you, in all the previous votes Israel has allowed the residents of East Jerusalem to participate through the post offices. I do not think that is the point at the moment. East Jerusalem If there are elections that are acceptable to Israel – fine, and the solution to East Jerusalem has been found four times. “If Abu Mazen decides and there is no small chance that he will not make elections, he will use the issue of Jerusalem and say that Israel does not allow it, etc. and that will be his excuse.”
What is your position on Robert Mali?
“I must be fair, Rob Mali has been my friend for more than 20 years, he is an unparalleled kind man, he is a great scientist. We have no agreement mainly about his views on Iran, Assad, Hamas. He has other views, Huna Ben by the way To a Syrian family who came to the United States through Egypt. Father Leshu was a fairly prominent communist activist in the Middle East. His closeness to the administration is in the fact that most of Mali and Tommy Blinken played together in the same football team of their parents’ synagogue in New York, they go a long way together. Mali’s appointment is less sympathetic than other appointments. “
Is it progressive? Will promote dialogue with Iran and Hamas?
“He is only responsible for the issue of negotiations on the nuclear issue. No brother would have let him touch on the Palestinian issue.”
On the nuclear issue, he will bring an agreement that is less good than the current situation.
“On the nuclear issue, he will bring the same agreement that Linken and Sullivan and President Biden will decide is good enough for them. His freedom of action in this matter is limited. The Iranians are already telling him – you will take the first step, start sanctions. We are not willing to involve another country in talks. “Let’s put the Gulf states and Israel in the circle of talks and the Iranians say – there will be no slightest change in the nuclear agreement. We are entering a tunnel of months of negotiations, it will not happen tomorrow.”