Violations, messages – and threats: the battle for the nuclear deal

Who will blink first, Tehran or Washington? This is the question that is now hanging in the air, about a week and a half after the inauguration of US President Joe Biden – who promised to work to save the nuclear deal signed during his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, from which former President Donald Trump resigned, while Biden and his people demand Iran back from widespread violations Of the agreement before an American return to it, the ayatollahs’ regime demands the complete opposite: first the removal of American sanctions that suffocate Calcutta, and only then the return of the wheel of violations backwards.

The new US administration has stressed in recent days that a return to the nuclear deal is a time-consuming matter, especially given the complete lack of trust between the parties, and new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken this week called for patience. “If Iran returns to its commitments, the US Do the same, “Blinken said. “This is how we will create a platform to build a long-term and strong agreement and deal with some problematic questions in relations with Iran. But we are far from that stage,” he stressed.

Tonight, however, a slightly different tone is heard from Washington, with a certain urgency. Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said a “critical starting point” for the Biden administration would be to address Tehran’s growing enriched uranium reservoir. The U.S. official warned that Iran was “getting closer and closer to getting enough fissile material for a bomb.”

At the same time, the special US envoy for Iran, Robert Mali, whose official appointment was announced only tonight, has already begun talks with senior officials in Britain, France and Germany – the European powers that have signed the 2015 nuclear deal and are now trying to prevent his death. A diplomatic source in Europe who spoke to the Reuters news agency said that the purpose of the discussions between Mali and the Europeans was to understand their “mood” and get an up-to-date picture.

The very appointment of Mali yesterday received widespread resonance, given the fact that he was one of the leaders in the negotiations that preceded the signing of the nuclear agreement six years ago, and his appointment marked another message from Biden that he intends to return to the nuclear agreement. Biden himself stated in the election campaign that he intends to return to the agreement, and emphasized even then that Iran must first return to complying with its terms. He then said he would work to reach further agreements that would address Iran’s missile program and its various activities throughout the Middle East.

White House spokeswoman Jen Saki reiterated these goals in a press briefing she held tonight. She said that through diplomacy, the U.S. would work to “extend and increase the nuclear restrictions” contained in the agreement – perhaps hinting at criticism that key parts of it have an expiration date – and addressing other “worrying” issues. She added that Washington would share its efforts with its allies. Asked if Biden would agree to meet or talk on the phone with his Iranian counterpart, President Hassan Rouhani, she said the latter should not be brought forward, and that “the first step is for Iran to abide by (the agreement).”

In Iran, as mentioned, the exact opposite is demanded. “Why on earth should Iran – a country that has stood firm for four years in the face of US economic terrorism and a breach of the nuclear deal – show goodwill first?” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif wondered earlier this week. “The agreement has no reason. It is the one that needs to correct the mistake, and Iran will respond.”

Zarif expressed hope that the new US administration would succeed in rescuing the nuclear deal, but said the move would only be completed if Washington demonstrated a “true partnership.” In an extensive article published in the American Foreign Affairs magazine, Zarif urged Biden to lift all sanctions imposed during the previous administration. In return, you will cancel all the steps it has taken since the US withdrawal from the agreement.

But Tehran, unsurprisingly, is not content with just demands – and has launched a campaign to put pressure on the Biden administration, perhaps with the aim of raising the issue of the nuclear deal to the forefront of the president’s internal crisis – especially the corona plague raging there.

Iran is now threatening an even more significant breach of the nuclear deal, and this week authorities there warned that if sanctions were not eased by February 21, restrictions would be imposed on the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) nuclear inspectors.

Despite widespread violations of the agreement, which Tehran began in July 2019, it has so far maintained cooperation with nuclear inspectors. Last December, however, the Iranian parliament passed a new law in response to the assassination of senior nuclear scientist Muhsin Fahrizadeh (an operation attributed to Israel), which required the Tehran government to reduce the supervision of inspectors.

Although President Rouhani opposed the law, claiming it would undermine his ability to maintain diplomacy, his government enforces it – and on Wednesday said that if there were no easing of sensations by next month, IAEA inspectors would no longer be able to inspect nuclear facilities at short notice. Because if by the date in question “positive actions” are taken, as he puts it, Iran “will not interfere in the reception” of the inspectors.

Under the same law, Iran had already returned last month to enrich uranium to a level of up to 20%, at the Purdue nuclear facility. Such a level of enrichment is much higher than allowed under the nuclear deal – 3.67% – and significantly shortens the path to the bomb, which requires uranium enriched to a level of 90%.

The state media in Iran reported yesterday that the nuclear facility in Purdue – the very enrichment of uranium in it is another violation of the nuclear agreement – produced in just about a month about 17 kg of enriched uranium to a level of 20%. This, in addition to about 2.5 tons of uranium rich Iran To 4.5% This month also reported another step Iran took on the road to the bomb: According to the Wall Street Journal, it has begun building a new line for the production of uranium metal, an essential material for the production of nuclear weapons.

In an interview with Reuters earlier this month, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned that Iran appears to be “focusing fairly quickly” on enriched uranium production at 20%, and warned that efforts to find a diplomatic solution have very little time left. . We have weeks, “he said.

Grossi warned back in December that the Iranian violations were too serious, stating that it no longer seemed possible to simply settle back into an agreement, even if an agreement was miraculously reached between the parties. According to him, at least an additional agreement or appendix will be required.

In this context, it should be noted that the EU has recently warned that alongside the enriched uranium reserves that can be eliminated – as was done after the signing of the agreement in 2015 – the information and experience that Tehran is now acquiring is indelible. At a meeting of the IAEA Committee in November last year, European envoys warned of “irreversible consequences” due to Iran’s research and development in the field of advanced centrifuges – another significant violation of the agreement.

Our security commentator Ron Ben-Yishai noted that these centrifuges, which Iran is now beginning to install in underground facilities in Natanz and Purdue, are capable of enriching uranium 5 to 10 times faster than the old centrifuges – hence they can produce fissile material for several warheads within a few months. In November, experts in the field estimated that Iran’s time to “bomb” was only about three months.

Along with threats to exacerbate Iranian violations, Tehran appears to be trying to attract Biden’s attention through a series of provocative actions. Among other things, they took control of a South Korean oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, and a few days before the swearing-in of Biden announced the arrest of an American-Iranian businessman. The same man, Amad Shargi, is accused in Iran of unspecified espionage offenses. The blast this afternoon at the Israeli embassy in New Delhi also immediately sparked speculation about Iranian involvement, although Israeli officials said it did not appear to have anything to do with it, given the “amateur cargo” used.

“I think the Iranians understand that they will have to compete with other issues that are at the top of Biden’s priorities – the corona, the US economy, the climate,” Henry Rom, an analyst for Eurasia Group, told the New York Times. “In foreign affairs, Iran is in the top five, but it is not the first. There is Europe, China, Russia – and then Iran,” Rom added. “Iran understands that it is not a top priority, and is trying to promote itself on the list.”

The first response from the Biden administration to this Iranian pressure came on Wednesday, in the form of a Mets of the strategic bomber B-52 in the Persian Gulf, the first in the new administration period and the sixth in number in recent months. This is a continuation of the US deterrence campaign launched by Trump, and a senior U.S. military official said after the Mets that “our goal is to maintain security stability, deter any aggression in the region, promote regional security and reassure our allies.”