The pictures from Bnei Brak were difficult, but predictable. Order in ultra-Orthodox society rests on a demanding, strict, obedient routine. The plague broke the routine. In any case, the events this week were merely a reminder of what every citizen knows: the State of Israel established a glorious ultra-Orthodox world, until it grew wild. out of control. As in the story of Jack and the pea bush, someone threw seeds into the garden, and the next morning he found huge stalks in his garden with their heads in the sky.
How do you get out of this? Good question. Jack climbed on the stalk, taking advantage of it. But in the State of Israel, there is no one who will find much benefit in climbing the ultra-Orthodox stalk. In the eyes of most Israelis, there is almost no need for the ultra-Orthodox society in its current form to meet it. Not in service, not at work, not in increasing cohesion, not in education. Perhaps demographic growth is serving Israel by increasing the Jewish majority. Maybe, but not sure. Because demographic proliferation is also what turns ultra-Orthodox society from an oppressive burden to a dangerous one. A burden on whom? Not “about Israel.” The ultra-Orthodox are also part of “Israel.” The ultra-Orthodox are a dangerous burden on all non-ultra-Orthodox.
A bus was set on fire by protesters in Bnei Brak. (Photo: David Keshet)It is unpleasant to say of a large group of human beings, most of whom are good, dedicated, honest, pleasant, idealistic, that they are a dangerous burden. As human beings, each and every one of them is not a burden. They are excellent like any other, and sometimes even more so. But as a group it is difficult to look at data without a shred of anxiety. Those who do not contribute to the Israeli economy, those who retreat their education, those who make it difficult to manage their affairs, are, quite simply, a burden. And the problem with ultra-Orthodox society is not just that it is a burden. There are other groups in society that receive more than they contribute. The problem with ultra-Orthodox society is that it is a society that burdens a burden and at the same time gains power. The problem is that its power is being used to keep the status quo intact. That is, to leave it as a burden.
The ultra-Orthodox are not “idlers.” They do not serve, they do not work, not because they want to sit in their armchair and watch Netflix. They just have other priorities. They think it is more important to learn. They think and educate that it is more important to learn. Yair Shrek’s series aired this week provided a moment of magic, in which young students answer the question of what will happen if they stop studying with the horrific answer “the world will be destroyed.” Think for a moment about the motivation of someone who truly believes that his education is what prevents destruction. Think how ridiculous the demand would be for him to go into military service, or to work in an accounting firm. Is a soldier in Givati preventing global destruction? Does an accountant save the world in his work?
How important it is
What we see this week in Jerusalem and Bnei Brak is not the product of an epidemic year, nor of one or another statement by a rabbi, or one mistake or another of a frightened police officer. It is a product of decades of neglect. Decades in which ultra-Orthodox society was given the freedom to establish an autonomy exempt from the Israeli law and order of Ramat Gan or Rehovot or Rishon Lezion.
Autonomous freedom was convenient for everyone. To the ultra-Orthodox activists who maintained control of their street. To the non-Haredi activists who made the deal – autonomy in exchange for political support. The police can not change the situation. The police are his victim. Just like the rest of the Israelis, who accept the ultra-Orthodox autonomy with a gnashing of teeth. They know it’s a bluff autonomy. Go with state services – feel without state authority.
The local outbreak of recent days does not have much significance unless it leads to political system robbery. And for that to happen, the “ultra-Orthodox issue” needs to be greatly prioritized by the public and its leaders. The “ultra-Orthodox issue” should be so important that it has the potential to determine who will win the election. This is the only way to get the attention of politicians. That is, political leaders need to know that maintaining the status quo will cost them votes, and perhaps power. They need to know that there are more votes of non-Haredim who will vote against them than votes of Haredim who will vote for them.
It’s quite a few voices. The ultra-Orthodox have two stable parties. They have between 15 and 20 seats. And in simple words: in order for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop relying on the ultra-Orthodox voices, and to respond to most of their dictates, he must fear the loss of 16 seats of Likud voters. As long as he is not afraid of it, he will not turn his back on the ultra-Orthodox. There is a greater political gain in relying on the ultra-Orthodox than in renouncing them. And if it seems that someone other than Netanyahu will behave differently, the facts are far from giving confidence that this is the case. Very few leaders seek to curb the ultra-Orthodox power – very many leaders seek to “talk” to the ultra-Orthodox. That is, to allow them to conduct themselves in their own way, only without exaggerating, in exchange for their political support. So Ya’alon, so he sent, so the updated torch, not to mention Saar and Bennett – who generally wants to let the ultra-Orthodox work without serving. Because he does not believe they can be forced to serve.
Do Lapid or Saar think they have a place to find 16 seats of voters, which will eliminate for them the need to form a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox? As long as they do not find these seats, they will have to come to terms with the demands of the ultra-Orthodox. Think of it this way: because the Knesset has between 10 and 15 seats on Arab lists, which is difficult to get into the coalition, and because the Knesset has another 15 seats for ultra-Orthodox, who defend ultra-Orthodox autonomy – whoever wants to form a coalition free from compromise with ultra-Orthodox activists For long-term root canal treatment of problems arising from the ultra-Orthodox autonomous existence, a majority of 60 MKs will have to be found – but not out of 120, but out of about 90 (Arabs + ultra-Orthodox = 30). In a reservoir of 120. If the initial reservoir is 90, it will be much more difficult.
so what are we doing? The approaches to the ultra-Orthodox challenge can be divided into two times two.
The first controversy, which has two main views, is a factual controversy: whether the ultra-Orthodox are moving in the direction of distancing or in the direction of integration.
A second controversy, which has two main opinions, is a practical controversy: whether the path to solution passes through dialogue or passes through coercion.
The events of Jerusalem and Bnei Brak this week have strengthened the minds of those who believe that the ultra-Orthodox are moving in the direction of distance. They have strengthened the minds of those who believe that the solution to the challenge is being forced. Thus, because long months of dialogue, advocacy, overt and covert talks with ultra-Orthodox leaders – all of these have not worked. True, most ultra-Orthodox keep the law, and most avoid the corona, and most do not want to clash with the police. And yet, most of them do not give up autonomy. They want ultra-Orthodox autonomy. And as long as there is autonomy, which requires protection from the state, a clash with the authorities and with the majority society is inevitable. This week, the vulnerabilities of autonomy were revealed to the general public. This week the dangers of autonomy sharpened.
This week the anger intensified. And as is well known, anger is sometimes a bad advisor, but sometimes also a necessary component in motivating people to action. If the only way to address the ultra-Orthodox challenge is to channel sufficient energy to shake up the political system; And if the political system is shaken, it requires close to 20 seats for Israelis who will see the ultra-Orthodox challenge as a high priority; And if anger motivates voters to prioritize the ultra-Orthodox challenge over other matters, such as peace or the Supreme Court or a non-Bibi yes-bibi; If all this happens – then the events in Jerusalem and Bnei Brak brought us somewhat closer to the watershed of the ultra-Orthodox and non-ultra-Orthodox relations.
Ask: Have we been brought close enough? It seems not. It seems that at the moment the ultra-Orthodox challenge is not yet at the top of the agenda, only gnawing at its margins. Maybe Avigdor Lieberman will gain a seat or two from this (here is a proposal for the campaign: “There are many parties that did not sit with Netanyahu, but only one party that will not sit with Deri and Gafni”). Perhaps in the ultra-Orthodox society inside, voices of critical examination of the leadership will arise. Maybe in the fifth election, the turn of the ultra-Orthodox challenge will come
Standard deviation
1. The weighted index of the index site, which uses all media surveys, does not yet identify a group of parties that can form a coalition of 61 MKs. But the trend at the moment is that Netanyahu is a little closer to the coalition of the right-wing ultra-Orthodox, and Saar-Bennett-Lapid is a little further away from the coalition of the “Brotherhood.”
The surfers of the index website, who participate in the election prediction contest of Here News, give the right fewer seats than it receives in the polls, and there is a little more future. The more politically inclined the surfers are, the greater their tendency to foresee the possibility of a right-wing ultra-Orthodox coalition.
More Americans believe that America’s number one problem today is “weak leadership” than the number of those who think the number one problem is the corona.
4. Nearly half of Americans believe that history will rank Trump as a “bad” president. Another 14% believe it will be rated “below average”. Nearly one in ten (9%) thinks Trump will be ranked as a wonderful president.
5. Thanks to the corona, citizens of all the world have moved to cook at home. In Lebanon an increase of almost 40%, in Pakistan and Slovenia about 20%, in India 23%.
This week we used data from the index website, the Institute for Jewish People’s Policy, the Institute for Democracy, Gallup