The Golden State Warriors have benefited greatly at the expense of the Minnesota Timberwolves there … [+]
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“We are a medium team, with the ability to be a good team”. So Golden State Warriors Head Coach Steve Kerr said earlier in the week. It was a grim assessment of a inconsistent Golden State team that is able on one hand to beat the two top teams in the Western Conference in the Lakers and Clippers, but on the other hand get rolled by the New York Knicks and swept away by the Utah Jazz. . In fact their 8-8 record is a bit deceptive, bolstered by a one-point win over the Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors.
A pretty easy solution for the Warriors is starting lineup woes in moving Damion Lee in and Kelly Oubre out, as explained a week or two ago. But there is also help to reach not one, but two, matchups against a really bad team, the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Warriors then get the next week with a goal from the Detroit Pistons, which deserved the league ‘s worst record to date. All three gimme games won early in the season, and that should provide an immediate tonic.
The future of the Warriors is closely tied to what the Timberwolves present
It’s not just the relief associated with the album on the cards involved though. What makes these matchups a little more spice than the bounty that the Warriors took out of the Timberwolves in the Andrew Wiggins-D’Angelo Russell swap is their top three pick-ups in this year’s version.
Minnesota currently holds the second-worst record in the league, behind the Pistons. The Warriors have had some luck when it comes to the Timberwolves and the draft in the past, thanks to their irresistible decision to field Stephen Curry not once, but twice , in the 2009 version.
If the Timberwolves continue on their normal path, the Warriors may need some luck again. Thanks to the flat lottery numbers if Minnesota ends up in the bottom three, the Warriors still have a 60% chance of getting the pick. Those odds hit up a bit to 63.4% if the Timberwolves finish fourth or 68.5% if they finish with the fifth-worst record.
That’s all to say, if the Wolves keep their normal path, the Warriors have a very reasonable view at a selection somewhere between 4-8. And, as has been widely followed, with this class version featuring a number of high-level talents, that holds a key to the future.
The Warriors aren’t just playing the Timberwolves
Of course, there is no guarantee that the Warriors will win those two matchups with the inconsistent way they play. And that’s where things could be really interesting. The early West stands are well bottomed. There is no story that will change either. The race for the last few playoff places will be competitive this year.
The Warriors really have the potential to grab a playoff spot, and they should improve as the season progresses and their knowledge of each other grows. But the difference between finishing in the seventh spot, or the tenth spot may only be a few games. Both places will reach a team in the new play-in tournament, with the difference as the winner of the 7 vs 8 matchup you only have to play once, but in the 9th and 10th spots you are on the win two play-in games.
The other difference? As it is, nothing has changed about the lottery numbers. Finish 8th and you’re out of the lottery. Finish 9th, where the Warriors are currently, or 10th, and depending on the standings in the next conference, a team could finish up to an 8% chance of a three-high pick. These aren’t weird you would want to place a big bet on, but since the lottery odds were smoothed, the Lakers went from 11th to 4th in 2019, and the Hornets went from 8th to 3rd in 2020, and had a 7.5% chance of.
At the start of the season, with a chance for a very good selection from Minnesota in hand, there’s no incentive to think about playing the lottery odds. The Warriors ’mission is still just to try and win the games in front of them, and develop James Wiseman’s undoubted talents.
But if the Warriors ’inconsistency is dogging them all year round, the balance is to win an extra game to get into the playoffs vs. to get another look at a lottery selection, though. very narrow, in a deep version something to keep at the back of the mind.