Ro
Maritime government
05-10-2020 08:08:27
An international study led by Nanyang University of Technology (NTU) in Singapore has found that the average sea level rise could be more than one meter before 2100 and five meters before 2300 if global emissions targets are not met .
The study used projections by more than 100 international experts for average sea level changes under two climate conditions – low and high emissions. In a situation where global warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, experts estimated an increase of 0.5 meters before 2100 and 0.5 to two meters before 2300. In the case of high emissions with a warming of 4.5 degrees Celsius, the experts said. estimates a larger increase of 0.6 to 1.3 meters before 2100 and 1.7 to 5.6 meters before 2300.
Sea level rise projections are higher than previous estimates by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“We know that the planet will see sea level rise in the future,” said co-author Dr. Andra Garner, Associate Professor of Environmental Science at Rowan University in the USA. “However, there are significant differences in the level of project sea level rise experts for low emissions compared to high emissions. This gives great hope for the future as well as a strong incentive to work now to avoid the more severe effects of rising sea levels. ”
The study is based on the informed views of 106 experts at sea level. The 106 experts who participated in the study were selected because they were among the most active publishers of sea level studies (at least six papers published in peer-reviewed journals since 2014) that were ranked. identification from a major publication database.
In response to open-ended questions, climate change experts identified the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet as the biggest sources of uncertainty. These ice sheets are an important indicator of climate change and a cause of sea level rise. Satellite-based measurements show that the ice sheets are melting at an acceleration rate. However, the experts also noted that the magnitude and impact of sea level rise can be limited by successfully reducing emissions.
Professor Benjamin Horton, Acting Chair of the NTU Asian School of Environment, led the study published in the Journals of the Partner of Nature and Atmospheric Science. The collaborative project involved researchers from the University of Hong Kong, the University of Maynooth (Ireland), Durham University (UK), Rowan University, Tufts University (US), and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (A). ‘Germany).