On the basis of a study of other similar viruses, scientists conclude that the novel coronavirus may resemble the mild coronaviruses that cause a cold in the future.
Reuters
The condition is likely if the virus becomes endemic and most people will be exposed to it in childhood, says a new study.
Published Tuesday in the journal Science, the modeling study is based on research of the four common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-1. Scientists analyzed the immunological and epidemiological data for these viruses to develop a model that can predict the onset of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic. This is when the virus spreads in the general population.
In their study, the researchers noted that people have been infected with four common coronaviruses that cause colds for a long time and that almost everyone is contagious at a young age..
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While such a natural disease in childhood will develop immunity to protect one later in life from a serious disease, that will not stop redemption from time to time, said Jennie Lavine, of Emory University in the US, the first author of the study.
The novel coronavirus could go down a similar path in human history. The research suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 may be a childhood disorder. In such a situation, the first infection would occur between 3 and 5 years of age, and the disease itself would be moderate.
Researchers confirm that such early infection improves immunity to serious disease. This trend of becoming a common cold virus, however, depends on how quickly the virus spreads.
“This model assumes immunity to the function of SARS-CoV-2 similar to other human coronaviruses. We do not know for sure what it would be like if someone received one of the other coronaviruses for the first time as adult, rather than as a child, ”said Lavine.
All on immunity
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Many of the predictions on the model depend on the type of immune response induced by the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. The model suggests that even if the vaccines promote short-term protection against relapses but reduce the severity of the disease, SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic more rapidly. Such is the case with other endemic coronaviruses.
As per the model cited in the study, the infectious mortality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 may fall below the seasonal flu rate (0.1 percent) when it reaches a stable state. endemic. This is when vaccination against the disease may no longer be needed.
However, targeted vaccination may still be required in vulnerable subtypes, including children, if major diseases develop in children, as in the case of MERS.
(By submission from PTI)