The defense establishment is preparing for disputes with the Biden administration

In the past week, it has become clear, even to those who are not experts in international and American policy, that the Israeli government will have considerable difficulty adapting to Joe Biden’s designated government.

First, because the scale of values, foreign policy, and strategy accepted by the mainstream of the Democratic Party and by the staff of the president-elect are polarly different from those accepted by the Trump administration; Second, because the Israeli government is rightly perceived in the United States as a camp in the Trump camp and its supporters, and because Prime Minister Netanyahu has a history of jarring confrontations with President Obama’s Democratic administration, of which he was deputy. Some senior Obama administration officials have been promoted to the most influential positions in the administration. To his post on January 20th.

By the way, not only in Israel, all US allied leaders in the Middle East understand that they will have to make adjustments and changes in their domestic and foreign policies.

After Baiden more or less completed his administration’s intended top train, Defense Minister Bnei Gantz instructed evaluators in his office and the IDF to map out first the security and strategic issues that are likely to be controversial with the new administration. Then senior (and still) discussions were held. The Ministry of Defense and the IDF in order to formulate recommendations for requests, proposals and demands in the framework of security coordination and cooperation – along with recommendations regarding Israeli conduct vis-à-vis the new government.

These days, such critical issues are being discussed in the political-security cabinet or in a small team of ministers headed by the prime minister. The defense establishment, the National Security Council, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the intelligence community prepare the background material and submit their recommendations. Gantz has learned from experience that in the de facto presidential regime that Netanyahu has instituted in the past year or so, it is not known whether and in which forum there will be discussions and decisions, and whether he is defense minister and other ministers will be updated or face finished facts.

For example, the defense minister and the foreign minister do not know for sure to this day what they discussed and what was agreed – if any – at the “secret” meeting between Netanyahu and the head of the Mossad with the Saudi Crown Prince about two months ago. Therefore, the Secretary of Defense decided to initiate preparations for the new administration in Washington in an area that is directly his responsibility. If there is ever an orderly discussion in the government or in the cabinet, the defense establishment will come to it with a cohesive and reasoned proposal based on the best intelligence and policy assessments.

A significant difference between the Biden administration and the Trump administration, which is recognized by security assessment factors in Israel, is in the basic approach to the management and implementation of policy and strategy. Trump made many one-sided and one-time grandiose moves that relied primarily on skills he attributed to himself, rightly or wrongly, and a team of advisers who were afraid to oppose his opinion. He acted as an almighty presenter on a reality show. Trump also often makes decisions as a soloist based on profit and loss considerations without consulting and coordinating with allies, and even many intentionally confronting them and their leaders.

Biden and his team, on the other hand, are devout believers in multilateralism; That is, in complex processes carried out in cooperation with allies and coalitions of common stakeholders to the United States. The pursuit of strategic achievements in the war on terror and the proliferation of nuclear weapons must be carried out under international law, in cooperation with Europe, China and Russia. Interior does not justify a violation of universal humane values ​​and the values ​​of liberal democracy.

No matter what one thinks in Israel about the (poor) achievements of the Obama administration in the world in general and in the Middle East arena in particular – the defense establishment estimates that the Biden administration is about to walk the same path.

In light of this, senior members of the defense establishment recommend that the dialogue with the Biden administration be conducted at the beginning, mainly between the defense establishment; Between the IDF and the Department of Defense and the Pentagon and the arms and commands of U.S. armed forces. The reason is not necessarily that there is an ideological and mental identity between the parties, but mainly because the security establishments already have several permanent bodies (committees) in which security, military and intelligence dialogue, tactical and strategic, is ongoing.

These committees meet at regular intervals, once every few months, and discuss issues of common interest. For example, the joint committee of the IDF for Yokum (European Command) and Santcom (Central American Command, which includes the Middle East), and continued in the joint committees of which senior officials from the Pentagon and the State Department (US State Department) sit with senior Israeli Defense Ministry officials. Time for a deep mutual understanding between the parties, and agreement on outlines of action that do not necessarily depend on the identity of those sitting in the White House or at the Prime Minister’s Residence in Jerusalem.

The connection between figures in the new American security establishment and their counterparts in Israel is also an important factor that may bridge disagreements. Chief of Staff Kochavi has close ties and many hours of conversation and operational coordination with Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Millie, while the designated U.S. Secretary of Defense, (retired) Lloyd Austin, who was commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, is a veteran acquaintance of Ganz from the days they both still wore uniforms. . So did Austin’s deputy, whom Gantz worked with as a military attaché in Washington.

The main area of ​​controversy between the Biden government and the current government in Israel is the intention of Biden and his people to return to the JCPOA, the nuclear deal Iran signed with the five powers and Germany in July 2015. Trump withdrew from the agreement and re-imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and its ability to use the international clearing system. Biden and his men have officially announced that if Iran returns to the nuclear deal, the United States will return to it. This means that the biting sanctions that destroyed Iran’s economy will be lifted, and it can return to exporting oil and receive money in return. Biden intends to enter into negotiations with Iran In the original nuclear deal, on restrictions on the missile program and the cessation of Iran’s regional subversion.

No one knows exactly what the Biden administration wants to achieve from the Iranians, and how it will achieve what it wants. But Israel’s defense establishment believes that a return to the original nuclear deal, as it was written, would be a disaster and would significantly advance Iran – in the near future – to own nuclear weapons. This is especially so if the sanctions over Tehran are lifted before the Iranians give any real return.

However, a head-to-head confrontation with the Biden administration from the very beginning will not be beneficial and may even harm the Israeli interest, according to the defense establishment, as happened in the days of Obama. In order not to reach a confrontation, a detailed series of proposals and advice was prepared in the campus, which will be submitted to the Americans to help them in the negotiations that will be opened (if and when it opens) with Tehran, and if possible to influence its results.

An example of such a possible proposal is to require Iran not to develop and manufacture ballistic missiles and cruise missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, but to allow the development and production of limited quantities of medium and short-range missiles. In any case, the intention of the Israeli defense establishment is to conduct this sensitive dialogue with the Biden administration without leaks to the media and behind closed and locked doors in the discussion rooms in the Kirya in Tel Aviv and in the Pentagon in Washington. The question is whether Jerusalem will cooperate.

The second most important issue from the point of view of the Israeli defense establishment is to persuade the Biden administration to continue to strengthen and consolidate the anti-Iranian camp in the Middle East, in which the moderate Sunni Arab states and Israel are members. Biden and the people he has chosen do not hide their distaste for human rights violations in the Gulf states, as well as for the war in Yemen that has caused – and continues to cause – one of the most serious humanitarian disasters humanity has known in recent times. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are held responsible for the continuation of this war to no avail and without the ability to win it.

Therefore, the new administration in Washington is expected to oppose the realization of the huge arms deals concluded between Trump and the heirs of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and weaken them and their ties with the United States. Normalization with Israel will also hurt the ties between Washington and these governments. Focus on the East Asian arena in the confrontation with China, so the Biden administration is also expected to continue the dilution until the end of the US military presence in the Middle East in general, and in Syria and Iraq in particular. A trend that Obama started and Trump promoted.

This issue is of great concern to the defense establishment in Israel, because the US withdrawal from its outposts in Iraq and Syria will allow Iran to turn Iraq and Syria into its metamorphoses and realize the idea of ​​the land corridor of the radical Shiite axis from Tehran to the capitals. International energy also in the current era.

A third issue on which the defense establishment views difficult disagreements is the Palestinian issue. Although Biden is not expected to turn back the wheel and cancel the relocation of the embassy to Jerusalem or the recognition of the Golan Heights, but There are fears that the new president and his people, who have already announced that they see the establishment of two states based on the Clinton outline as the appropriate solution to the conflict, will erode renewed hope among Palestinians that they can pressure Israel to withdraw lines 67 with Washington’s assistance.

In this context, the campus notes that Biden’s designated administration will include key executives in former Obama administration Secretary of State John Kerry and former UN ambassador Susan Rice. Both will be cabinet members and both support the Clinton outline. Quite a few senior defense officials also support the two-state idea. , But not back to lines 67. Therefore, clashes are expected in the campus with the next US administration not only in this matter but also in humanitarian questions concerning the management of the affairs of Judea and Samaria, and a large possible operation in the Gaza Strip.

It is currently estimated that the controversy over all the issues mentioned here will not arise immediately, as the new administration in Washington will wait a few months before seriously embarking on an effort to resolve the conflict with Iran, or delve deeper into the Palestinian issue. First they will wait in Washington for the results of the Israeli elections in March, then there will be elections for the Hamas leadership and possibly also in the Palestinian Authority, and in June there will be elections in Iran. When these processes are over, says a senior defense official, not only will the new administration be more cohesive with respect to the Middle East – we too will get to know the Biden administration and the US political situation better, and will be able to cooperate and resolve disputes with our most important ally.