From the “First Northern War” to the internal crisis: these are the threats facing Israel

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Although Israel’s enemies are wary of war with it, there may still be security incidents that will lead to an unplanned escalation, according to the annual assessment of the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS).

Preparation exercise for fighting in the north, January 2020 // Photo: IDF Spokesman

The assessment of the situation presented today (Wednesday) by the head of the institute, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amos Yadlin, to President Reuven Rivlin, shows that the first threat in its severity is the “First Northern War” against the forces in the north and east. The second most important threat is the Iranian nuclear program, and for the first time, the internal crisis in Israel is in third place.

The report’s authors address the significant internal challenges and weaknesses exposed by the Corona in Israel, including a deep and ongoing political crisis, paralysis in government work and more. But despite the serious internal challenge, the report’s authors state that “the external challenges should not be mistaken.” According to the authors, “the possibility that the State of Israel will encounter an external security challenge in 2021 is unlikely,” among other things in light of Iran’s open account with Israel.

The Palestinian problem has not disappeared

To their approach, Tehran may act aggressively, primarily through terrorist organizations under its control, in the assessment that the new US administration will be restrained in its response and ease the “maximum pressure” policy in which President Donald Trump began. “Israel’s deterrence is strong on all fronts and its enemies do not want a war against it, but due to regional instability, constant friction and the difficulty of controlling developments, the prospect of deterioration is out of control and requires a high level of readiness and vigilance,” the report states. It has not disappeared, and the weakening of the Palestinian pressure and influence in light of the establishment of official relations and normalization between Israel and Arab countries could provoke violence among the Palestinians.
Demonstrations in November 2019 in Tehran // Photo: AFP

As mentioned, in the ranking of the leading threats in order of severity for 2021 is the “First Northern War” against the forces in the north and east: Iran, Hezbollah, the Syrian regime, pro-Iranian militias and attacks from western Iraq. According to the institute, and since this is the most serious threat for 2021, it is recommended that it constitute the threat of attribution to the readiness of the IDF and other security forces. It was further emphasized that the Corona crisis has not diminished the severity and urgency of the threat, and that Israel will continue this year. To prevent him from building the next military fronts against Israel and strengthening them. “

The authors also noted that the Iranian establishment in the region is lagging behind in planning in Tehran due to a number of factors, including the damage to the Quds Force commander, Suleimani, Israeli BAM activities, US policy and pressure in Iran due to the corona crisis and declining oil prices. The Iranian, and in particular by Hezbollah, which can cause significant damage to Israel and paralyze vital – military and civilian systems in the home front, is a strategic threat that the State of Israel must formulate a strategy to stop its development.

Iran sees the choice of Biden as a positive development

The second most serious threat is Iran’s nuclear program. The plan is considered the most serious threat, and a potential for an existential threat to Israel. Its urgency in 2021 is lower, but its potential severity for the future is the highest. In this context, we noted that the replacement of the Trump administration by the Biden administration is undoubtedly a positive development in Iran’s view, mainly due to the expectation that the Biden administration will return to the nuclear deal and remove the “maximum pressure” exerted by the Trump administration. The institute emphasized the importance of coordination and dialogue with the new administration and at the same time recommends that Israel hold a credible offensive option against Iran in case it decides to break into the bomb.

The third threat in its severity is the internal crisis in Israel, and society divided by a combined health, economic, social, political and governance crisis, which was exposed in the corona plague. For the first time since the institute began publishing its annual threat ranking, the internal challenge was ranked as one of the top three threats to Israel’s national resilience.

Frictions with Israel? Joe Biden // Photo: Reuters

The authors of the document also referred to the challenges and opportunities, noting that Israel holds a very strong basic deterrent against its enemies on all fronts. In terms of the fight against the Iranian nuclear program, the authors noted that there is a low chance of extreme scenarios of a bombing during 2021. The US administration change and President Biden’s entry into the White House compels Israel to find ways of dialogue and influence that reduce the potential for a US nuclear deal The defective will ensure a reliable military option in the event of an Iranian intrusion into the bomb. ” As for the new US administration, the authors further noted that it is expected to be pro-Israel, but at the same time, there may be points of disagreement on issues in which Israel has enjoyed automatic support from the outgoing administration, for example in the Palestinian arena and potential return to Iran.

On the other occasion, the researchers noted the “Abraham agreements” and the normalization with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and possibly other countries later on. The authors described them as “a very important strategic gospel” and having “a positive impact both on the national security and the economic level”.

In the recommendations chapter, the researchers emphasized that with regard to the Iranian nuclear program, Israel must prepare for the expected dialogue between President Biden’s administration and the international community and Iran, while defining Israel’s vital interests in a new nuclear agreement. Israel is committed to preparing for two scenarios – the first is renewed negotiations and the second is an Iranian crawl towards the nuclear threshold, as well as a combination of them. Both scenarios require understandings and a joint action plan with the United States. The researchers further rescue the campaign against Iran’s establishment in Syria and the precision project, as well as in preparation for the First Northern War. The institute offers a mix of five strategies: continued MBM, defensive, active and passive strategy, deterrence, pre-strike and preventive attack.

The consequences of the epidemic will continue even after the vaccine

Faced with the internal crisis in Israel, the researchers note that the consequences of the epidemic will continue in 2021, even after a large-scale vaccination. Because in order to begin the process of emerging from the crisis, the researchers noted, priority must be given to professional and decentralized management of the crisis in the health, economy and society dimensions. We also noted that the corona crisis illustrated that the establishment in Israel has a mechanism and patterns of action for dealing with non-security crises.

As for the regional arena, the researchers noted that it is true that Israel will work to expand the trend of normalization to other countries, while reducing the risks to its qualitative advantage and without being drawn into conflicts not its own. In this context, it is right to share Egypt, Jordan (while restoring relations with it) and the Palestinian Authority. In their view, it is possible that the coming period is also suitable for an attempt to raise the level of relations with Turkey, despite the challenges along the way.

Continuation of the corona vaccine to the population, last week // Photo: Moshe Ben Simhon

As for the Palestinian Authority, it noted that the new US administration is expected to show less support for Israel’s positions compared to the Trump administration, and that European countries are expected to persuade it to work to renew the political process and promote a two-state solution. “In the Gaza Strip and formulate with it a prolonged ceasefire and a solution to the issue of IDF casualties and the civilians held in Gaza, in exchange for improving the situation of the population and civilian infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, and in an effort to curb its military intensification.” We further noted that it is important that Hamas, as a secondary and less important arena than the northern and Iranian arenas, does not draw on the military and policy inputs needed for the arenas of priority. If Israel is nevertheless drawn into a confrontation, it will have to target the IDF move with very serious damage to the organization’s military arm and to other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip.

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