One year after the U.S. killed a general Iran, Iraq’s tensions boil

U.S. President Donald Trump sent horrific waves through the region on January 3, 2020, with the targeted assassination of honorary General Qasem Soleimani of Iran and his Iraqi lieutenant, which destroyed the Islamic republic and its allies.

Trump said the strike came in response to several attacks on U.S. interests in Iraq that have continued ever since. With just weeks left in the White House, he has warned that in the event of new attacks, “I will hold Iran accountable”.

War-torn Iraq is still torn between its former U.S. occupying power and nearby Iran, Washington’s arch enemy, which has been heavily affected by the U.S. invasion of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi, who took office in May, has suffered blistering threats from the powerful pro-Iranian paramilitary groups that Washington blames for the rocket attacks.

Security sources say tensions escalated after a man arrested by another attack on the U.S. embassy, ​​Asaib firefighter Ahl al-Haq (AAH), a group of Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary network.

Embarrassed AAH fighters stormed out through the streets of Baghdad and threatened to personally target Kadhemi if his brother-in-law did not let go, sources said.

“We warn Kadhemi that if you do not go back, you will be punished,” said an insulting firefighter in one of several videos circulating online.

Another group threatened to “cut out the ears … the spy”.

Pro-Iranian forces accuse Kadhemi, who is also a spy leader in Iraq, of suffering in the assassination of Soleimani, who was the head of an outside operation for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and deputy director Hashed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

Kataeb Hezbollah, another hard-pressed group, has been under pressure, with a comment urging “treacherous Kadhemi not to test tolerance against him”.

The Iraqi prime minister has urged calm but also warned that we are “ready for a definitive conflict if necessary”.

The war of words has escalated tensions in a country that remains politically fragile after years of war and discontent and is fighting the Covid-19 pandemic with its economy recovering from the sharp fall in global demand for oil.

“If there is an increase, it is a break or break for the government,” said Sajad Jiyad, a man at the U.S. think tank The Century Foundation.

“The potential for the Kadhemi government to fall apart is very high,” he said, arguing that the pro-Iranian groups have political alliances that may go unnoticed by him.

In the standoff, the government has stopped holding fighters on Hashed, a move that is formally part of Iraq’s security apparatus.

Security sources told AFP that Iraq’s intelligence service would hand over the AAH fighter to Hashed’s own security steering group.

This was similar to a similar incident in June, when elite security forces led by Kadhemi arrested 14 members of Kataeb Hezbollah on the same charges, and then handed them over to Hashed.

Thirteen were released within hours, the last of which was released later.

Such compromises show Kadhemi opting for the status quo over escalation by armed groups, said Jiyad, the analyst.

“People are tired of seeing the law stamped,” said one politician, referring to an anonymous condition.

“But the armed forces are afraid to take the initiative because they do not feel supported by the political leadership.”

Without the political and military efforts for a direct halt, the Iraqi government has chosen to communicate.

Iran’s prime minister’s prime minister, Abu Jihad al-Hashemi, was in Tehran last week to try to centralize, Iraq’s top official told AFP.

He apparently tried to persuade Tehran to stop its allies in Iraq from launching further attacks on the U.S. and other diplomatic or foreign military sites, Jiyad said.

It is hoped to maintain the calm from October when tough groups agreed to halt non-stop attacks after a year of frequent rocket fires and roadside bombs. But such attacks are beginning to resume.

Even during the “truce”, unidentified surveillance drones would fly several times a week over the U.S. embassy and adjacent military cement to host international troops, a senior U.S. military official said. ri AFP.

The U.S. embassy withdrew its non-essential staff last year and a few weeks ago deployed staff later in what a senior Iraqi official said was a temporary measure led by “security guards ”.

It could also signal more upcoming U.S. military action, Iraqi and Western officials have told AFP a few weeks ago.

“The U.S. had to get its staff out before taking the action, so that they would not be targeted in any possible retaliation,” said one Western diplomat.

That means, as tensions boil over at home, Iraq has also been keeping a close eye on Washington in the past few weeks before Trump handes over to President Joe Biden.

Trump recently tweeted that the U.S. was hearing “chatter of further attacks against Americans in Iraq” and warned “if one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think about it.”