- The first study of the UK’s rapidly spreading coronavirus mutation warns that tougher security measures may be needed to prevent further major outbreaks.
- Computer models indicated that the virus could be 56% more infectious than other strains. But the new mutation does not cause a more serious illness.
- Researchers warn that schools may have to close to buy more time for Britain. They also say that vaccination campaigns need to be accelerated to reduce the spread of the virus.
When the UK Prime Minister announced last weekend that a recently discovered coronavirus mutation could be 70% more contagious than other strains, some experts questioned the estimate, saying it was necessary. more data to determine the risk of strain. Many European countries banned UK travel to reduce the risk of B.1.1.7 strain traveling to the rest of the EU region. The mutation carries a collection of 17 genetic mutations, the first for well-known coronavirus mutations. While it may not cause more severe cases of COVID-19, these mutations may be more contagious. Some health experts even warned that the changes could make existing vaccines less effective, while many others said there are no such concerns. The consensus was that more research was needed to determine the way forward. The novel strain should be tested in laboratories to determine how infectious it is and whether it can avoid neutral antibodies formed after vaccinations.
The first study of the new coronavirus strain is now here, and it tells the world that the threat could be serious. Tougher measures, including school and university closures, as well as accelerated vaccination campaigns, may be needed to prevent B.1.1.7 infection from getting out of hand .
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The study comes from the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and was published online in introductory form. The scientists found that the UK variant is 56% more contagious than the other circulating versions in the country, and requires further measures. The estimate of 56% is still rough, as the researchers collect more data. The study found no evidence that the virus was more lethal than other strains, which is good news anyway.
“Vaccine distribution may need to be significantly accelerated,” said Nicholas Davies, lead author of the study The New York Times. “Preliminary findings are convinced that faster vaccination is going to be a very important issue for any country that needs to address this or similar changes. ”
The scientists did not study the behavior of the virus in laboratory tests but used computer models to predict the severity of the pathogen. Their experiments failed that the B.1.1.7 strain may be common in some regions of the UK because people in these areas are moving more than others and are more likely to be affected. communicate with more people. The scientists also explained what could happen over the next six months and built models using different constraint levels. “Cases, hospitals, ICU admissions and deaths in 2021 may be higher than those in 2020,” without a major vaccination campaign. The UK has recorded almost 2.2 million cases so far this year, including nearly 70,000 deaths.
Researchers said school closures until February could buy the country some time. Lifting the restraints would have a big spike in things.
A vaccination model where 200,000 people are vaccinated each week showed that the pace would be too slow to affect the spread of the mutated virus. “That speed would not be able to support much rest from the control measures,” said Davies. If weekly vaccines reach 2 million, COVID-19 transmission could fall. But vaccine supply remains low and it will take time for vaccine campaigns to go up. Even once there is an adequate supply, it is unclear whether the country can increase vaccinations to 2 million a week.
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Like any other COVID-19 study, this study could benefit from additional data, and there may be limitations that affected the models. Few experts reviewed the study for The Times He raised some potential issues, including the assumption that people under 20 had a 50% chance of spreading the disease. But even those researchers made it clear that mutation needs to be noticed or that it could lead to another very serious breakdown.
The full review can be found at this link.
Chris Smith began writing about gadgets as a hobby, and before he knew it he shared his thoughts on tech stuff with readers around the world. When he’s not writing about tools he finds it hard to stay away from them, even though he’s trying hard. But that is not necessarily a bad thing.