World has no choice but to learn to live with COVID-19
As coronavirus (COVID-19) infections rise in much of the world, many are holding out the hope that vaccines will bring life back to what we knew it was. That is optimistic thinking. Even if vaccines are effective, COVID-19 will be with us in the future – at least for the next five years. We need to learn to live with it.
An international panel of scientists and social scientists, convened by the Wellcome Trust, raised four pandemic scenarios. Key variables included what we could learn about the biology of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) – such as the rate of mutation and the extent to which infection receives antibodies – and how quickly we develop and deploy effectively. vaccines, antivirals, and other treatments. The study then considered how each of these four scenarios would unfold in five general scenarios: High, middle and low income countries, as well as conflict zones and vulnerable environments such as camps. refugees and prisons.
Even in the four most promising cases – characterized by relatively stable viruses, effective vaccines, and improved antiviral treatments – SARS-CoV-2 will not be eradicated in all five cases within five years , although community dispersal may be eliminated within some border issues. And, while one situation suffers from a COVID-19 revolution, all conditions are vulnerable.
As the study shows, eradicating the virus and ending the medical emergency requires not only a vaccine that cuts transmission, but also effective treatments and quick, accurate tests. Such a medical device had to be available and affordable to all countries, and used in a way that would gain global experience and involve local communities.
However, at present, only one of the nine major vaccine candidates is stopping the spread of the virus; the others are aimed solely at limiting the depth of COVID-19. Furthermore, although treatments for moderate and severe cases have improved significantly, they are still unsatisfactory. And tests are flawed, expensive, and controlled by supply chain weaknesses.
With such an incomplete medical device, non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), such as social pace and mask wear, are essential. Fortunately, most countries have recognized the importance of early action, enforcing strict rules to protect public health very quickly. Many have also provided strong economic support to protect life and livelihoods among locksmiths.
But short-term emergency measures such as blanket locks are not a lasting solution. Few countries – especially in the emerging and developing world – are able to lock down their economies, let alone maintain proposed policies. in place so that effective vaccination is widely available.
To eradicate the virus you need not only a vaccine that cuts the spread, but also effective treatments and quick, accurate tests.
Erik Berglof
Such measures are simply to slow the spread and buy time for policymakers and health care professionals to identify vulnerabilities and, guided by input from the social sciences, strategies design medium and long term strategies appropriate to local circumstances. Unfortunately, so far this time has not been used particularly wisely, with policymakers preferring to imitate each other’s solutions, rather than creatively teaching lessons in ways which describes local circumstances.
NPIs do not fit all. And the process doesn’t bring them back. As one group of researchers recently suggested, epidemiology – supported by the behavioral sciences – needs to guide this process. In practice, this means that countries should reduce restrictions only when they have robust systems in place to monitor the evolving public health situation and to track and trace people. leth. And they should maintain other transmission reduction measures, such as face mask requirements, for a period of time. These measures must be supported by sustainable investments in public health capacity and health system.
Attention must also be paid to the political side of the relevant decisions – for example, about opening schools or allowing large gatherings. Leaders need to identify the benefits of their policy choices, recognizing that they may look very different depending on economic, social and political circumstances.
How policy choices are made and implemented is of paramount importance. An effective response needs to emphasize both individual and collective action, with people taking responsibility for themselves and their communities. At the same time, as countries such as Norway and Finland have shown, the funding of temporary “breakers” – as rich countries should be able to – can make progress in reducing community dispersal.
Weak political leaders who believe they can avoid the pain and unhappiness that comes from restrictions will impose higher costs on their people. Likewise, those who focus on who is doing better or worse miss the point: Everyone is better off if others are doing well. Competition over medical supply and vaccine doses is infertile.
Thus, while individual countries need to adapt solutions to local conditions, the COVID-19 response must ultimately be global. Resources need to be directed towards the most vulnerable countries and population groups. They must also be allocated to other public health requirements, such as the fight against malaria.
Already, the pandemic promotes inequality both among and within countries. Wealth has been the most powerful protection against COVID-19, as it enables social distance and all but guarantees quality health care. But such inequality weakens the resilience of the global community. The most effective interventions are the ones that protect the most vulnerable.
Someday, the world may have the complete tool it needs to eradicate the virus and it needs to focus on building the infrastructure and implementing capacity logistics to use. In the meantime, we should stop restoring our hopes quickly to “normalcy,” and begin to develop holistic, creative and collaborative strategies for living with COVID- 19.
• Erik Berglof is Chief Economist at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.
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