The study, conducted by researchers from Tel Aviv University and published in the journal Science Advances, showed that earthquakes hit the region once every 130 to 150 years, although a smaller gap of just a few decades is also possible.
A building destroyed by the devastating earthquake that struck Israel in 1927
(Photo: University of Haifa)
The last earthquake of magnitude 6.5 hit the Dead Sea region in 1927 – resulting in hundreds of casualties in the capital Jordan, Amman, Jerusalem, Bethlehem and even in the Jaffa.
According to the study – which reviewed about 220,000 years of Dead Sea geology by drilling and surveying the seabed – another such earthquake is nearby and is expected to hit the next few decades.
The research was led by the head of the Porter School of Environmental and Earth Sciences at Tel Aviv University Prof. Shmuel Marco and colleagues – Dr. Yin Lu from Tel Aviv University, Prof. Amotz Agnon from the Institute of Earth Sciences, Dr. Nicolas Waldmann from the University of Haifa, Dr. Nadav Wetsler from the Geological Survey of Israel, and Dr. Glenn Biasi from the American Geological Survey.
Research drill station in the Dead Sea
(Photo: Tel Aviv University)
“According to the latest earthquake, which is our best indication, about 250 people were killed in Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Amman and Jericho,” said Dr. Marco.
“So if we compare it with the number of people living in these cities today, 100 years later, the population has increased by about 2-3 times. This means doubling the number of casualties, not to mention the significant damage to infrastructure and property. “
The study also showed that tribes of size 7.5 hit the Dead Sea every 1,300 to 1,400 years instead of every 10,000 years on average as previously believed.
A building destroyed by the devastating earthquake that struck Israel in 1927
(Photo: University of Haifa)
Researchers estimate that the last magnitude earthquake in our area hit the year 1,033 – that is, almost a thousand years ago, which means that it is expected to hit another macroseism of the area in the next few centuries.
“I don’t want to scare you, but we live in a time that is tectonically active,” said Dr. Marco.
“The geological record will not lie and there will be a great earthquake in Israel. Of course, we have no way of predicting exactly when the earth will shake under our feet – this is a statistical prediction … it could happen in ten years or several decades but it can happen next week too and we need to prepare for that. “