It is not since Turkey’s 1974 invasion of Cyprus that Ankara has become so remote internationally.
Last week, Washington slammed Turkey, another NATO member, with CAATSA sanctions for the purchase, acquisition and testing of S400 Russian missile defense batteries. Meanwhile, the EU hit Ankara with moderate sanctions of its own, a move similar to a final written warning before further drastic measures are taken.
US President Donald Trump will meet with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in the White House Oval Office. November 13, 2019.Cliu: Tom Brenner / REUTERS
The decline of Turkey’s international standing comes despite the fact that Ankara can boast of recent military successes that should have elevated the country’s status.
These military victories include Turkey’s involvement in the Nagorno Karabakh crisis between Azerbaijan’s Turks and Ankara’s historic enemy, Armenia. The conflict ended with significant territorial gains for Azerbaijan with the support of the Turkish military and, considering, the deployment of mercenaries from Turkish agents from Turkey.
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Turkey is gaining another military success through its support for the Tripoli-based government in Libya led by Fayez al-Arraj. With Turkey deploying Turkish-backed Syrian weapons, drones and fighters, the internationally recognized Libyan government has successfully resisted the attack by ruling General Khalifa Haftar on much of the country and which is supported by Russia, Egypt, France and the UAE. .
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will address a speech march to mark the impact of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in Baku, Azerbaijan. 10 December 2020.Credit: MURAT CETINMUHURDAR / PPO / REUTE
In Syria, Turkey maintains a group of agents that includes Salafi Islamic militants, Turkmen’s troops and other anti-Assad forces. Through these units, Turkey has ruled, after several interventions, to engage in areas such as Afrin, Al-Bab, Azaz, and Jarabulus west of the Euphrates, in Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn to the east, and into Idlib further south.
Not only does Turkey now have a say in the future of the country, but it has also prevented the end of the Kurdish state.
However, despite these military advantages, Turkey finds itself with very few international alliances.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly warned of the consequences for acquiring the S400s, and this implementation could risk leaking important Nato security data. But Ankara did not listen and instead decided to test the S400s against the US who made F16s.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will shake hands with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. June 29, 2019.Credit: POOL New / REUTERS
This was after Mr Erdogan went to Washington by threatening to “slap Ottoman” US forces based in Syria and who had arrested U.S. nationals.
At the same time, Europe is losing patience with Turkey.
Tired of Ankara’s attempts to bully Cyprus and Greece and muscle themselves a piece of Eastern Mediterranean gas, European leaders are also embarrassed at Ankara arming the four million refugees by ‘threat of entry into Europe. And European countries are made to turn the other cheek every time President Erdogan presses publicly on countries like France, Germany and the Netherlands. If Ankara continues its bellicose behavior it expects the European Council to impose stronger sanctions when it meets again in March.
If Turkey had stopped the provocative astronomy, returned to an aggressive situation in the Mediterranean and sought diplomatic ways to reconsider its maritime economic zones, Turkey’s position would have been in Europe developed significantly especially after the hydrocarbon discovery in Turkey in the Black Sea and its announced military success.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a press conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris. January 5, 2018Credit: LUDOVIC MARIN – AFP
European leaders would have continued to look the other way as Erdogan continued his ongoing project to dismantle the country’s democracy by arresting journalists, Kurdish politicians and civil society activists.
Turkey’s only true friend in Europe is the United Kingdom, officially out of the EU as soon as the clock strikes at midnight on New Year’s Eve. However, Ankara likes to be a “strategic partnership” with London to put Downing Street in a strange position after US sanctions. Turkey’s behavior in the Mediterranean is also a disgrace to Downing Street, as it reflects London’s inability to function properly as one of Cyprus ’sponsors.
Ankara’s relations with Arab states, from Egypt to the UAE, have also deteriorated and many in the region see Turkey as an important strategic threat, perhaps second only to Iran.
Even Turkey’s ties with its new allies, Russia and Iran, are just rosy.
Highly successful in Azerbaijan, President Erdogan rushed to Baku to celebrate victory by reciting a poem sung by Iran as a call for his own Azeri region to seek independence. This led to a petition from Tehran. At the same time, Russia has been unreliable, with no difficulty in turning the heat against Turkish – backed forces in Idlib and fighting on the other side to Turkey in Libya.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is standing with Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, in Doha, Qatar. 7 October 2020.Cliu:, AP
Qatar seems to be Turkey’s only real partner. Turkey wants to pull out of its economic downturn, Turkey is selling large chunks of its economic package to the Qatar Investment Authority. This includes 10 percent of Turkey’s stock exchange as well as investment in the Istanbul port project, and strong interest in Istinye Park, Turkey’s most prominent shopping center.
But Turkey cannot count on Qatar. The state-owned Qatar Petroleum is part of the alliance with ExxonMobile which explores natural gas off Cyprus and will also seek to invest in Egypt’s gas refinery. In other words, even Qatar may be just a fair weather friend.
James F. Jeffrey, who recently resigned as Washington’s special representative towards Syria and the international coalition against ISIS, called Erdogan a “great Power thinker.”
However, thinking as a great power is different from being one. Great powers know when and how to use military force, soft power and diplomacy. Erdogan and his inner circle do not, and there are constant misconceptions that have led Turkey to international isolation rather than to global welfare status.
Dr. Simon A. Waldman is a Fellow of the Henry Jackson Society and a Visiting Lecturer at King’s College London. He is co-author of “The New Turkey and Its Discontents” (Oxford University Press, 2017). Twitter: @ simonwaldman1