Baghdad, Iraq – It was 1m on January 3, 2020, when news reached that an American drone had targeted a convoy of vehicles in the Iraqi capital, in which an Iranian general was believed to have been killed.
Before the hour went up, Iraqi state television confirmed what many suspected: Major-General Iran Qassem Soleimani was among the 10 victims of the deadly strike, which the United States later cited as a more strategic strategy. wide area to prevent enemies.
By the time the country awoke that morning, the news had sent a ripple wave across the globe, with some Iraqis adding their faith to what they were feeling when Saddam Hussein left. subdued.
“It was something you couldn’t believe – Soleimani was thought to be unbelievable but he died,” said a Baghdad man, who did not want to be named.
Kataib Hezbollah militants hold a picture of General Qassem Soleimani as they gather for the funeral of Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was killed in an air strike at Baghdad airport [File: Thaier al-Sudani/Reuters]
The world was only three days into the new year. The killing of an Iranian general who is largely responsible for Tehran’s regional influence would become the first in a long list of events that would shake Iraq in 2020, and the version that was criticized was widely of troubled national budget 2021 the latest.
As the year draws to a close, the provisional budget document outlines the government’s plans to reduce local finances and cut public workers ’salaries, raising anger among Iraq.
Economic woes
In a country where about 90 percent of government revenue comes from oil, prices this year have paved the way for a meltdown crisis.
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in October warned that the oil crisis combined with COVID-19 was exacerbating inequality in Iraq, while a World Bank report in November estimated that up to 5.5 million Iraqis were at risk of falling into poverty.
This year, more than four million civil servants were involved in emergencies and delays. But with little approach in the private sector, many Iraqis have to rely heavily on the state for their livelihood.
In the northern Kurdish region, frustration over payments soared this month when deadly clashes broke out between local security forces and public workers who took to the streets to protest against non-payment of wages .
“The current situation in Iraq is irreversible,” said Christine van den Toorn, president of the Iraq Fund for Higher Education, a non-profit organization dedicated to creating educational and educational opportunities. new employment for Iraqi youth.
The country has a “large population of young people, a thriving public sector whose income cannot even support the normal wage, much less employment even a small percentage of the hundreds of thousands who come in. into workers every year due to falling oil prices, van Toorn told Al Jazeera.
“There is only one solution to this – to educate, train and enable Iraqi youth to enter and find other jobs.”
Anti-government campaigner jumps over tires blocking Baghdad highway [File: Khalid Mohammed/AP Photo]
Despite the emergence of e-commerce industries and investment agencies, Iraq’s private sector has struggled in a political situation where entrepreneurs are constantly challenged by mismanagement and corruption.
As long as the private sector remains weak, millions of Iraqis will remain at the mercy of the government as they continue a plan to cut wages in an effort to balance the country’s financial deficit.
At the same time, lowering the dinar from 1,182 to 1,450 against the U.S. dollar is going to reduce people’s purchasing power and bring in some worthless wages.
All of this was met with widespread frustration as Iraq set itself a step into the new year amid financial deepening.
This, says Iraqi analyst Mustafa Habib, tends to increase popular anger “until it becomes irreversible”.
At the end of 2019, the government failed to save Iraq’s flaming economy and provide services and employment opportunities prompting major protests swept across the country.
With youth unemployment expected to exceed 36 percent and the poverty rate to double expectations to 40 percent, according to the World Bank, social unrest could be inevitable in 2021.
Nationwide complaints
What began as peaceful demonstrations in October 2019 quickly turned into a deadly conflict between the security forces and protesters.
At the height of the uprising, anti-riot forces and militia members were using live ammunition, stripping gas grenades and torturing. By January, the death toll was over 600.
“Accountability to perpetrators of violence is a complaint and compensation for victims or their families is the top priority for the government,” Ali al-Bayati of the Iraqi High Commission for Human Rights told Al Jazeera.
To date, no one has been held responsible for the killings, injuries and evacuations of civilians.
Despite the deadly crackdown, protesters continued to demand jobs, services, stop Iranian and U.S. intervention, and overthrow Iraq’s corrupt political system.
In November last year, Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi resigned. He was replaced by Mustafa al-Kadhimi in May. Some hoped that the new US-backed Prime Minister could be a response to the growing militias backed by Iran.
Seven months after the swearing in of al-Kadhimi, security elements linked to Iran and false militias are still working with immunity.
In a government-led effort in June, 14 members of Kataib Hezbollah backed Iran for claiming to have planned an attack on Baghdad airport, just to release 13 of them quickly. .
“The Iraqi government has been struggling to maintain the rule of law for some time now, and events in 2020 showed the scale of the challenge,” said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi analyst and thinker at the think tank. based in New York.
“Militias have been expanding, pursuing attacks against diplomatic missions and government facilities, and using murder, violence and evictions to incite critics,” Jiyad said.
In July, analyst and government adviser Hisham al-Hashemi was killed by unidentified gunmen in Baghdad. None were arrested, but the branch was strongly identified at Kataib Hezbollah.
“Despite the prime minister’s promise that justice would be served swiftly, it is unlikely that his killers would be caught,” Jiyad said.
“The government has already said that the critics have left the country, so the chance in a study that will produce results looks slim.”
Aiming at Iraq
In less than a month, the new US administration of Joe Biden will see a meltdown of friendship between Washington and Tehran.
This, in turn, could reduce US-Iranian tensions within Iraq and allow Baghdad to focus on other security and humanitarian issues, such as the rise in ISIL (ISIS) attacks, in anticipation of 2,500 U.S. troops withdrew in January, and retaliate. of more than 60,000 abstract people who until recently lived in camps.
U.S. troops confirm U.S. embassy gathering in Baghdad, Iraq [File: Kyle Tabot/DoD/AFP)
Human Rights Watch this month warned that Baghdad’s decision to close Iraq’s displaced people’s camps was forcing residents into homelessness and poverty.
Prime Minister al-Kadhimi is likely to have pushed for a swift relocation of the displaced in a bid to close all camps before the June general elections.
Holding early elections was a key demand of the anti-government protesters. However, an opinion poll in December by US-based nonprofit the International Republican Institute showed “widespread pessimism over the country’s future and distrust in its political system”.
According to the nationwide survey, 52 percent said the current state of democracy was “very bad”, while 86 percent of those interviewed said the country was being governed in the interest of some groups. Sixty-two percent of those polled agreed it was important to vote.
The challenges faced by the Iraqi government in 2020 are likely to cause further obstacles in the lead-up to next year’s elections.
For now, Iraqis warily awaiting the first anniversary of the killing of Qassem Soleimani, with some Iraqi officials predicting renewed attacks by Iran-backed groups on US targets.
Earlier this month, the US embassy announced it was withdrawing some of its staff, according to media reports, and that the drawdown would continue until after the anniversary of Soleimani’s killing.
On December 16, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei renewed his promise of revenge during a meeting with Soleimani’s family, saying the US would pay for the drone attack that killed the commander.
Iraqis worry that retribution could be carried out in their country.