Four days before the election: Israel Today’s survey in collaboration with i24NEWS – the latest survey that the newspaper is allowed to publish – conducted through the “Brain Database” led by Prof. Yitzhak Katz, shows equality – 60:60 for the two blocs.
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The poll shows that if the election had taken place today (Friday), the Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu would have received 29 seats (a decrease of one seat from the previous poll), followed by a future led by Yair Lapid Yitzva with 18 seats.
According to the poll, the right of Naftali Bennett (who loses a seat) and Gideon Saar’s new hope receive 10 seats each.
In the crispness index, Saar is slightly stronger. 59% of those who intend to vote for him are determined to vote, compared to 57% of right-wing voters who are determined to vote.
There is not much new in the ultra-Orthodox lists: Torah Judaism receives 7 seats, while Shas receives 9 seats (increase of one seat).
The joint list rises to 10, and Lieberman also rises in the seat – and receives 8 seats.
And what happens in the underground battles? Here, too, are changes that may overwhelm the results of the truth.
Labor is stable above the blocking percentage with 5 (losing a seat from last week) and Meretz, probably thanks to the Gewald campaign, is rising to 5 seats (compared to 4 last week).
Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smutrich, is also not close to the danger line and receives 5 seats.
The one who is currently in dangerous proximity to the red line is Blue and White led by Bnei Gantz, who loses a seat and gets only 4.
Common to all the small parties is the relatively high rate of confidence of their supporters: 83% of Meretz supporters are confident that they will come to vote; 74% of blue and white supporters are confident in their vote; 71% of supporters of religious Zionism and a similar number of Labor supporters are confident they will come to vote for their party.
Similar to last week, even now the RAAM led by Mansour Abbas does not pass the blocking percentage. So is Yaron Zelicha’s new economic party.
Netanyahu’s bloc receives – 50. ‘Only not Bibi’ bloc – 60. Bennett – 10.
Netanyahu’s bloc is more homogeneous and stable. The gap between Lapid and everyone else clearly positions him as a contender for the crown, and makes the possibility of Naftali Bennett and Gideon Saar forming a coalition irrelevant.
How many are undecided and when will they decide?
Of all the respondents in the survey – 12% defined themselves as undecided.
The survey examined when, in the opinion of the undecided, the decision will be made on who to choose:
40% said that in the coming days, while 36% estimated that their decision would fall only on election day itself.
Also, 73% think they will not change their mind as to which party to give their vote to until the moment they cast the ballot into the ballot box; 19% said the chances of them changing their voting method are moderate; And 8% said there was a high chance they would end up voting differently from their current intent.
On the question of suitability Netanyahu wins a 36% majority for prime minister. After him Lapid gets 20%.
And what about the public’s assessment of the election results regardless of how they vote?
42% believe that Netanyahu will be the next prime minister; 31% think we will go to another election; 12% believe that a government not led by Netanyahu will be formed.
Netanyahu receives the highest marks Not only in the question of suitability for prime minister, but in each of the areas that concern the Israeli public.
In dealing with the corona crisis – Netanyahu gets 39% compared to Lapid who gets 16%.
On the political issue – Netanyahu with 43% and Lapid with 18%.
On the security issue – 38% believe in Netanyahu, and only 12% in Lapid. Bennett, by the way, passes Lapid on this issue slightly and gets 13%.
Also on the issue of dealing with the rift and the division among the people – 24% said that Netanyahu, while 21% said that Lapid.
The survey this time took place in a particularly large format, with 2,087 respondents and with an unusually small statistical error of only 2.1%.