The wagering world of PGA Tour events has always been hard to navigate, and while this week’s WGC-Dell Match Play may or may not make it any easier, it certainly makes it simpler. Over the first three days of Austin Country Club, 111 matches will be played between the best golfers on the planet, and there are (theoretically at least) ways to take advantage of the lines on them all.
Winners are harder to pick this week – which is why the numbers are shorter than Justin Thomas’ at 12-1 – but the head – to – head matchups are cleaner and more. creating more volatility than we would otherwise see at a PGA Tour event. . Again, I don’t know that this makes things easier when you look at the weird ideas, but it makes it more fun and introduces more clutter, which is great if you can sail.
Let’s try to do just that with my favorite seven bets this week at Austin Country Club courtesy of our friends at William Hill Sportsbook.
1. Patrick Cantlay for winning Group 10 (+138, along with Brian Harman, Hideki Matsuyama and Carlos Ortiz): Cantlay would be a terrific show ahead. He is extremely skilled, does not miss greens and is an advantage in all areas that get a stroke. Also, he’s a slow player who is probably a good junk speaker. He may not see hole No. 17 until the weekend.
2. Brendon Todd to win Group 14 (+350, with Daniel Berger, Erik Van Rooyen and Harris Harris): Todd is the other side of the death group. With Berger (who could be injured), English (dropped after an early win) and van Rooyen (struggling with his game) in his pod, that +350 number is delicious .
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3. Sergio Garcia for Group 8 (+210, winning with Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Wallace and Lee Westwood): Probably his favorite in his pool here, even with Hatton and Westwood involved. Hatton has just one of the top 10 in his last five events, and Garcia has beaten him more than anyone in the world. The angst involved in his matchup with Hatton will be off the records, but I love him at this number.
4. Corey Conners to beat Matthew Wolff (+100): What am I missing here? Conners is one of only eight golfers to get 2.0 or more strokes per round in 2021, and Wolff has been the worst player in this field so far in 2021.
5. Dustin Johnson to win (14-1): I told myself I won’t pick anyone to win this week, but this is too much. He comes from a run of tournaments where he was as short as 6-1 to win, and while his talent cannot surpass an event that is not in 72 holes, he is still the best player in the game. world and has won this tournament on this golf course before.
6. Rory McIlroy to win (20-1): When is the last time he was at this number? Also, his 72-hole appearances seem to go down with one- or two-hole rows where it goes double-triple or something rusty like that. That’s bad for stroke play but great for game play.
7. Cameron Smith to win Group 11 (+230, win with Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter and Lanto Griffin): Here’s a little early hedge against Rory’s election. Smith has been (somewhat quiet?) Burning out for the past few months, and if Rory is still a little off, I think he’ll come out of it. ‘this quarter.