2021 Player Odds Championship: Dustin Johnson’s narrow favorite ahead of Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau

Despite Bryson DeChambeau winning at Arnold Palmer Invitational on Sunday and Dustin Johnson’s midfield finish at the WGC-Workday Championship, DeChambeau could not disqualify a world No. 1 player as their favorite going entered the 2021 Players Tournament this week at TPC Sawgrass.

There is a good reason for that, of course. DJ has been the world’s best player from tee to green so far in 2021, and won the Saudi International in February. He has also won two of his last five (including the Masters) and three of his last 10 events. DeChambeau has won three of his last 15 tournaments.

But DeChambeau is not even alone. He shares that mark with technical defensive champion (2019), Rory McIlroy, at 14-1. Interestingly, McIlroy is the only golfer in the field at 20-1 or better who has won at TPC Sawgrass. That’s not necessary to be here because every golfer since 2004 – with the exception of Tiger Woods in 2013 – was the winner for this event for the first time.

Here’s a look at the ideas for this tournament broken down into a few different silos, starting with the depressions going into players ’week.

2021 players tournament odds

Favorites

  • Dustin Johnson: 12-1
  • Rory McIlroy: 14-1
  • Bryson DeChambeau: 14-1
  • Jon Rahm: 16-1

Those are your big boys, and they should be on top. They make up four of the top 10 in the world, and McIlroy is the defensive champion while the other three have won at least twice worldwide since the start of 2020. Probably that I like Rahm ‘s number more than the other three, if only because I see them all as something very similar right now.

Main controversies

  • Xander Schauffele: 20-1
  • Justin Thomas: 20-1
  • Webb Simpson: 22-1
  • Collin Morikawa: 22-1
  • Patrick Cantlay: 22-1
  • Tony Finau: 25-1
  • Spieth Jordan: 25-1
  • Viktor Hovland: 25-1

It is very easy to think of the winner coming from this group. It is a list that includes some elite iron players – maybe even bigger than the group ahead of this one – and I’m waffling between picking up Schauffele, Morikawa and Cantlay to win the tournament. Cantlay has been terrible so far in 2021, and the reason for his withdrawal from the WGC-Workday Competition (dehydration, stomach upset) doesn’t scare me. Tons of value added.

Sleepers

  • Tyrrell Hatton: 33-1
  • Tommy Fleetwood: 35-1
  • Scottie Scheffler: 35-1
  • Hideki Matsuyama: 35-1
  • Patrick Reed: 35-1
  • Daniel Berger: 35-1
  • Mata Fitzpatrick: 40-1

I’m not sure anyone at 33-1 should be considered a sleeper, but for the purposes of this exercise, that’s a fair label. This is an amazing group of players who are undervalued and undervalued here. According to Data Golf, Hideki Matsuyama has the best number of strokes won at TPC Sawgrass of anyone over the past 10 years. Also, Scheffler has been on fire (and played well here last year). Reed and Berger are perhaps the most interesting. They have both won in the last two months and seem to be always under the radar as to who we talk to the most about in any given week (but especially in the major events).

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